Steelers at Browns

The AFC North is kicking of this week of ball with the Browns hosting the Steelers. These divisional games always have a way of delivering entertainment and the outcomes are rarely predictable. It will be a great way to kick off the week. I have picked what I believe to be the Best Bet for the matchup. Let’s win some money!

Best Bet: Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards over 27.5

Odds

The Public Numbers

The Steelers come into this game as 2.5 point favorites. The public is sticking with the usual trend of betting the favorites. 79% of the bets and 84% of the money are being placed on the Steelers to win. The public also seems to be taking Pittsburgh with the points. 56% of the bets and 61% of the money are being placed on the Steelers to cover 2.5 points. The point total is set at 38.5 points. 83% of the bets and money are being placed on the over.

Match-up Overview

These teams have a long-standing history of playing each other. They have played 149 games against each other, and the Steelers hold the lead in the all-time series 83-65-1. The Browns have actually gotten the best of the Steelers more recently, winning 3 of the last 5 games. The most recent game was a 13-6 Browns victory on December 28th, 2025.

The Steelers enter this game 2-1 and are coming off of their best team game of the season. They just beat the Bengals in a shootout that ended 30-27 in their favor. So far this year, they are 2-1 against the spread. The offense has been under some scrutiny over the first couple of weeks as they have struggled with consistency. They are only averaging 17.7 points per game, which is ranked 26th in the league. However, last week they scored 30 points which gave Steelers fans some hope. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is taking charge of this offense and has thrown for 700 yards and 4 TDs. His leading receiver has been Roman Wilson who has 114 yards and 1 TD. He also relies on several other targets on offense like DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington. They will be facing a Browns defense that has been susceptible to the pass. The Steelers will also need to step up their run game as they are only averaging 95 yards per game. They will be without Rico Dowdle tonight, so the bulk of the carries will go to Jaylen Warren.

The Pittsburgh defense has been the strength of the team so far. They are allowing 20 points per game, which is 11th in the league. They have been particularly tough against the pass, allowing just 192 yards per game, which is 8th in the league. They are allowing 113 run yards per game, which is 18th in the NFL. The Browns offense does not inspire much confidence so I would give the edge to the Steelers defense in this matchup.

The Browns are also 2-1 and are coming off of a good come-from0behind victory over the Panthers. They are 2-1 against the spread. On offense, they are averaging 18 points per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been struggling in both the pass and run game but have been finding ways to win games. They are averaging 178 pass yards per game, which is 28th in the league, and averaging 87 run yards per game, which is 29th in the league. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has thrown for 587 yards and 5 TDs. The teams leading receiver has been Denzel Boston who has 195 yards for 2 TDs. Their leading rusher is Quinshon Judkins, who has 124 yards on the season so far. There is some cause for concern on the offensive line as they will be down several starting offensive linemen. This does not bode well as they are going to face off against the like of TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. I think it will be difficult for the Browns’ offense to move the ball tonight if they are unable to protect Watson.

The Cleveland defense has been allowing 23.7 points per game, which is 18th in the NFL. They have been pretty solid against the pass, allowing 224 yards per game, which is 18th in the league. Against the run, they are allowing 120 yards per game, which is 23rd in the league. They will need to find a way to stifle a Pittsburgh offense that has seemingly found its footing in recent weeks.

Injuries

Steelers

• Jalen Ramsey (CB) – Questionable
• Yahya Black (DE) – Questionable
• Rico Dowdle (RB) – Out
• Gennings Dunker (G) – Out
• Deshon Elliot (S) – Out

Browns

• Teven Jenkins (G) – Out
• Elgton Jenkins (C) – Out
• Tylan Wallace (WR) – Out
• Dylan Sampson (RB) – Out
• Jerimiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) – Out

Best Bet Background: Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards over 27.5

The Steelers are still finding their footing on offense but Pat Freirermuth has been a reliable target for Aaron Rodgers over the past couple of games and last year. He is 3rd on the team in targets and receptions this year and has been averaging 36 yards per game. He has gone over tonight’s line in each of the 3 games so far this year. The Browns allowed Darren Waller and Tommy Tremble to gain 92 yards last week. They allowed 38 yards to Cade Otton the week prior. They are showing that they are vulnerable to tight ends in the pass game. Muth should have a good night as the Steelers try to continue their offensive output.