NFL Week 4: Best Bets for Sunday

5 Player Props for Today’s Games

Week 4 is already in motion, and we are looking for our first winning week since Week 1. Our Thursday Best Bet fell short, but we have plenty of time to get things right. Today, the international games start so we will have an additional swing at the plate to get W’s on the board. I have gone through the slate today and picked 5 Best Bets for the day and provided some background on each. I have also included Jamie’s pick of the week. Let’s make some money!

First things first, the Best Bets:

Best Bets

Daniel Jones Pass Yards over 216.5
Tee Higgins Receiving Yards over 63.5
Kyren Willams Rush Yards over 57.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards over 91.5
Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yards over 94.5

Best Bet Background – Daniel Jones Pass Yards over 216.5

The day begins with our first 9:30 kickoff with the Commanders playing the Colts in London. Both teams are 1-2 and are trying to get back to .500 on the season. The key matchup to watch in this game will be the passing offense of the Colts against the passing defense of the Commanders. Washington is currently allowing 280 yards per game through the air. They should give the Colts and Daniel Jones, plenty of chances to get chunk plays. While the Colts are built to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor, the Commanders have had early success in stopping he run, allowing just 82 yards per game. By taking away the run game, it will force the Colts to pass. On the other side of the field, the Colts defense has struggled to stop anything. We might be in for a shootout, which would also favor Daniel Jones in his passing stats. Despite a slow start after returning from injury, Jones has improved each week. He threw for 235 yards against the Texans last week in a win and that was without his top receiver Alec Pierce. He faces a much weaker secondary today and should be able to pick them apart.

Best Bet Background – Tee Higgins Receiving Yards over 63.5

The Bengals are hosting the Jaguars in what has potential to be one of the higher scoring games of the week. The Bengals have been built to throw the ball ever since they drafted Joe Burrow in 202. This year is no different. They are ranked 13th in passing yards and 27th in rushing yards. They face a Jaguars defense that is allowing 235 yards through the air ach game. That makes this matchup a perfect pick for Tee Higgins, who is the Bengals leading receiver so far this year. Higgins has a habit of making big plays down the field and has the luxury of single coverage due to lining up with Ja’Marr Chase, who defense tend to double. Higgins is averaging 81.3 yards per game this season. If the game flow goes as expected, the Bengals will need to be passing in order to keep up with the Jaguars. Tee should be in for another big day.

Best Bet Background – Kyren Williams Rush Yards over 57.5

The Rams are flying cross country to take on the Eagles. The Eagles are struggling this year on both sides of the ball and they will be without their leading receiver, Devonta Smith today. This will probably be a closer game than expected but the Rams should be leading for most of the time during this game. That lends itself to the run game and Kyren Williams. Williams is averaging 71.3 yards per game and is going against a Philly defense that is 25th in the NFL against the run. They are allowing 127 yards per game. If the Rams get up early and by enough points, I expect them to lean on the run game to close the door.

Best Bet Background – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards over 91.5

The 2-1 Seahawks are hosting the 0-3 Chargers today during the 4 PM window. The Chargers are desperate for their first win and the Seahawks are looking to bounce back after dropping their last game to the Commanders. The Chargers have been a picture of dysfunction but perhaps the most surprising development this year has been the decline of their defense. They are 20th in points allowed, 21st in pass yards allowed, and 19th in rush yards allowed. This will be a tough matchup for them as they face a Seahawks team that is 4th in the league in pass yards, and that was with Drew Lock as their primary quarterback. The league’s leading receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, should be able to continue a dominant start to the season and break the 100-yard mark for the 4th game straight.

Best Bet Background – Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yards over 94.5

The primetime game will be between the Lions and Panthers. The Lions have been winning shootouts and have scored exactly 31 points in each game that they have played so far. They rely heavily on their superstar running back Jahmyr Gibbs in both the pass and the run game. Gibbs is averaging 102.3 run yards per game so far this year. Tonight, he faces the worst run defense in the league. The Panthers are allowing 193 yards per game on the ground. Adding injury to insult, the Panthers lost their top two corners to injury last week, so the defense that is already struggling, will be playing shorthanded against a high-powered offense. I would expect the Panthers to make a fight of it tonight as the Lions’ defense is last in points allowed but I would ultimately expect the Lions to overpower them. They will do so mainly through the use of Gibbs, who is in line for another big performance tonight.