Seahawks at Broncos

It is hard to believe that Week 6 of the NFL is already here. We have a potential Super Bowl matchup tonight between the Seahawks and Broncos. I have picked what I believe to be the Best Bet for the matchup. Let’s win some money!

Best Bet: Emmanuel Wilson Rush Yards over 66.5

Odds

The Public Numbers

The Broncos are hosting tonight and are 2.5-point home underdogs. The public is betting more heavily on the Seahawks to win tonight with 78% of the bets and 79% of the money being placed on Seattle to win outright. Meanwhile, 60% of the bets and 67% of the money is being placed on Seattle to cover 2.5 points. The total is set at 40.5 points with 80% of the bets and 76% of the money being placed on the over.

Match-up Overview

These teams have played each other 58 times, and the Broncos hold the all-time series lead 35-23. The most recent game was on September 8th, 2024, and was a 26-20 Seattle victory. In the last 5 games that they played against each other, Seattle is 4-1. So far this year, Seattle is 3-2 against the spread and Denver is 1-4 against the spread.

The Seahawks are 3-2 on the year and are coming off of a difficult divisional loss to the 49ers last week. It has been an up-and-down year for the Seahawks so far as the reigning Super Bowl Champions are having difficulty finding consistency. this is particularly true on offense. They are averaging 26.8 points per game, which is 8th in the league. They are being led by quarterback Sam Darnold who has been turning the ball over quite a bit over the last few games. While he has 755 yards and 7 TDs, he has also thrown 5 interceptions in just 4 games this year. If he can get the turnovers to decrease, this offense could be one of the most dangerous ones in the league. As it stands, they have the best wide receiver in the league in Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has 583 yards and 7 TDs so far. Add in other weapons like Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, and AJ Barner, this passing offense is averaging 222 yards per game, which is 16th in the league. They have an interesting matchup tonight against a Denver pass defense that is typically solid but is banged up at key positions. The real mismatch tonight will be the Seattle run game against the Denver run defense. The lead rusher for Seattle is Emmanuel Wilson who has 251 yards and 2 TDs on the year. They also use George Holani in the run game as well. As a team, they are averaging 106 yards per game, which is 17th in the league. Wilson is the 3rd running back on the roster with Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnett still on the injury report.

The Seattle defense is still one of the best units in the league. They are allowing 21 points per game, which is 8th in the league. They are the league’s best pass defense allowing just 150 yards per game. They face a struggling Denver offense so I would give the advantage to Seattle here. The run defense is allowing 100 yards per game, which is 11th in the league. They will be tasked with keeping the Broncos from scoring in what could be a very low scoring game, and points will be at a premium.

The Denver offense has been struggling all year. The struggle has been so real that they have changed their offensive play caller just 5 weeks into the season. Head coach Sean Payton took over the play calling last week in an effort to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of this offense. It was not an instant fix as Bo Nix continued to struggle. Overall, they are scoring 19.4 points per game, which is 26th in the NFL. They are struggling to move the ball through the air or on the ground. They are averaging 182 pass yards per game, which is 25th in the league. On the ground, they are averaging 86 rush yards per game, which is 25th in the league. They will have to find a way to get their play makers like Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton involved to open up this offense.

The Denver defense is allowing 22.2 points per game, which is 13th in the league. They are allowing 202 pass yards per game, which is 9th in the league. They are allowing 145 rush yards per game, which is 29th in the league. The main concern for this unit, that was supposed to be one of the league’s top defenses, is injuries. All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtainn II will be out. Riley Moss might miss the game tonight. Safety Talanoa Hufanga will miss tonight’s game. The secondary is particularly beat up which makes the matchup against JSN pretty terrifying if I am the Broncos.

Injuries

Seahawks

• Chaz Surratt (LB) – Out
• Drake Thomas (LB) – Out
• Zach Charbonnet (RB) – Out
• Julian Neal (CB) – Out
• Jadarian Price (RB) – Out

Broncos

• Riley Moss (CB) – Questionable
• Pat Surtain II (CB) – Out
• Talanoa Hufanga (S) – Out
• Pat Bryant (WR) – Out
• Jonah Coleman (RB) – Out

Best Bet Background: Emmanuel Wilson Rush Yards over 66.5

Tonight’s game script seems to point to a low scoring and physical style game. That typically means that the run game becomes the important phase on offense as teams try to grind out yards and focus on time of possession. The Seahawks are favored in this game and if they are able to protect the ball, they should hold a lead throughout the night. That means that they should rely on their run game with Emmanuel Wilson leading the charge. Wilson became the lead rusher in week 2 where he had 92 yards against the Cardinals. Since then, he has run for 14 yards, 81 yards, and 61 yards in the past 3 games. the Denver run defense has been allowing a ton of yards, so it is a soft matchup for Wilson. Denver has several key players missing but the key player that is missing is their starting safety Hufanga. The safety is typically responsible for taking away the big play in the run game and with Hufanga missing, they could be vulnerable to a big run tonight. It might be an ugly game but Wilson should be able to grind out 67 yards tonight.