NFL Week 7: Best Bets for Sunday

5 Picks for Today’s Games

Week 7 kicks off bright and early with another NFL Sunday starting overseas. This time, it is the first NFL game in Paris France. Should be an interesting day for the NFL. Our Thursday Best Bet cashed, so we are off to a great start to the week. I have gone through the slate today and picked 5 Best Bets for the day and provided some background on each. Today is also National Tight Ends Day, so I have cooked up a parlay that would be fun to hit. I have also included Jamie’s pick of the week. Let’s make some money!

First things first, the Best Bets:

Best Bets

Jaylen Warren Rush + Rec Yards over 96.5
49ers -2.5
Browns -1.5
Matthew Golden Receiving Yards over 73.5
Chiefs +3

Best Bet Background – Jaylen Warren Rush + Rec Yards over 96.5

The first game of the Sunday slate is kicking off in Paris between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints. This game is another instance where travel plans overseas are being scrutinized. The Saints have been there all week while the Steelers got there mid-week. Once the game kicks off, none of it will really matter. It will come down to the players on the field and the matchups at hand. That is why I am looking at Jaylen Warren’s total yards for this game. He has been the workhorse for this offense and has gone over this line in 3/5 of his last 5 games. He has become a focal point in this offense and has earned the trust and praise of Aaron Rodgers. Moreover, he is facing a Saints defense that is allowing 138 rush yards per game, which is 30th in the NFL. They are also allowing 239 pass yard per game, which is 25th in the league. The Steelers should win this game but if it goes the other way, Jaylen Warren should still be heavily involved throughout.

Best Bet Background – 49ers -2.5

As we turn to the 1 PM slate, the line for the 49ers and Falcons stood out to me. The 49ers are banged up and will be missing some of their key offensive players like Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. They are flying across the country to play the Falcons in Atlanta and have had a short week after playing on Monday night. All that said, the Falcons are a 2-4 team that has some injury problems of their own and has had difficulty with consistency on offense. The 49ers are currently 3rd in the league in terms of points scored, averaging 29.5 points per game, and are 4th in points allowed, allowing an average of 18.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Falcons are averaging 23.7 points per game and are allowing 25.5 points per game. There is also a revenge factor to keep in mind here. Kyle Shanahan was the OC for Atlanta during the 28-3 Super Bowl and has shouldered the blame for that loss for years. Additionally, 49ers DC Raheem Morris was just fired by Atlanta this past offseason. The 49ers should be able to scrape out a 3 point win against the Falcons.

Best Bet Background – Browns -1.5

The Browns are traveling to Tennessee to take on the Titans. This is not going to be a game that many people watch. Both teams struggle to score points and do not play a particularly entertaining style of football. That being said, the fact that the 4-2 Browns are only 2-point favorites over the Titans who just won their first game last week seems odd. The Browns are averaging 17.7 points per game while the Titans are averaging 14. This won’t be a barn burner but the advantage clearly goes to Cleveland.

Best Bet Background – Matthew Golden Receiving Yards over 73.5

The 4 PM window only has 3 games and the only one that looks like it will be competitive is the Packers-Lions game. This NFC North matchup should be a great game that produces a ton of points. The matchup I am looking at is the Packers pass game against this Detroit secondary. The Lions are allowing 297 yards per game this year, which is the most in the league. The Packers struggle to run the ball so much that they can essentially only move the ball by throwing it. Luckily for them and for QB Jordan Love, they have several great targets to lean on in the pass game. Which brings me to Matthew Golden, who is making his second appearance on my best bets list. Golden is having a fantastic year so far. He currently leads the team in receptions and is second on the team in receiving yards. He has gone over this line in 4/6 games so far and I would expect him to be above 100 yards today against a bad Detroit secondary.

Best Bet Background – Chiefs +3

The primetime game will be between the Seahawks and the Chiefs. It will be played in Seattle and the home team is a 3-point favorite. The Chiefs are 6-0 to start the year while the Seahawks are 3-3. Both teams have very solid defense and are top 10 in terms of points allowed. On offense, the Chiefs have the edge in terms of points scored. They are averaging 28 points per game while the Seahawks are 24.7 points per game. The game will most likely come down to whoever can protect the ball, which favors the Chiefs. Sam Darnold has been a turnover machine and his defense has not been able to keep up. The Seahawks are -1 on the season, while the Chiefs are +5 in takeaway difference. This game will be a tight game and should come down to a field goal. I think that the Chiefs should be able to cover if not win this game outright.