The NFL Season is officially back. It’s kicking off with premiere matchup between the Ravens and the 2x Superbowl defending Chiefs. Then on Friday, we have a special matchup for the NFL’s first game in Brazil. I’m going to provide a pick for each, give some background on them, and let you know which site has the more valuable odds.

First things first, the picks:

Pick: KC -3 (-102) – Both on FanDuel and DraftKings

Ravens @ Chiefs

The Ravens and Chiefs will kick off the season in Arrowhead at 8:30 PM ET on Thursday night. These teams have met 5 times since 2018. The Chiefs are 4-1 with their sole loss being a 36-35 loss on Sept. 19th, 2021.In those 4 wins, the Chiefs have won by an average score of 7.25 points per game. This game will grab the headlines for the quarterbacks in this game. However, the key to this game is going to be each of the respective defensive squads. The Ravens and the Chiefs were 1st and 2nd in points allowed per game, respectively, in the 2023 season. (If I were leaning one way or the other for the point total, I would lean towards the under of 46.5 points.) Both defenses were top 10 in pass yards allowed last year and middle of the road when it came to defending the run. With that being said, there will be a lot of running in this game if the defenses remain similar to last year. That points to a lower scoring game where situational football becomes important. While both of these coaches are top of their game in that regard, you have to leave toward the historical record. Plain and simple, the Chiefs have the Raven’s number.

Currently, a majority of the public is betting against the spread with 66% of the money being on the Ravens +3. If that trend holds up, then we will be fading the pubic. Both DraftKings and FanDuel currently list the pick at -102, which is a decent value. Personally, I am going to hammer this bet to get the season started off (hopefully) on a high note.