Week 3 is starting off with another AFC rivalry. Following a great start to the season, we are going to run it back with our Black Dog Best Bets. After a hot start, we had a back-and-forth week 2. Our Best Bets went 4-3 and brought the season total to 9-4. We are not going to win every bet but as long as we win more than we lose, we should be beating the books in the long run. Let’s go through the Thursday night matchup between the Patriots and the Jets.

First things first, the pick:

Best Bet

Rhomandre Stevenson Rush Yards o64.5 (-110) FanDuel

Background

These teams are very familiar with each other. These division rivals face each other twice a year. This AFC East rivalry has been dominated by the Patriots. Their historic record is 74-55-1 against the Jets. That has been the story recently as well. The Patriots are 4-1 in their last 5 matchups with the Jets. However, these are not the same Patriots and Jets as they have been in recent years. New England is in a rebuild and the Jets are banking on Aaron Rodgers returning to MVP form. Both teams come into this game with a record of 1-1 and are looking to improve to 2-1.

The strength of the Patriots is their run game and Stevenson carries the ball a lot for this offense. He has averaged 23 attempts per game which is 4th in the league. He is averaging 100.5 yards per game which ranks 6th. The worry is that he is perhaps nots the most efficient rusher as he is averaging 4.4 yards per carry which puts him at 25th. In what is expected to be a low scoring game where the Patriots are going to need to control the clock if they want to stay in the game, I imagine that they will continue to feed Stevenson the ball. As a team, the Patriots are averaging 177.5 yards a game, which currently ranks 4th in the league. One note of concern, the Patriots’ offensive line is currently very thin due to injury.

The Jets defense has struggled against the rush in the first two games this year. Week 1 they allowed Jordan Mason to rush for 147 yards. Week 2 they had a better outing against Tony Pollard who ran for 62 yards. However, they let up 130 yards on the ground. They currently rank 24th in the league allowing 155 yards per game on the ground. They had similar struggles going back to 2023 where they ranked 24th in the league by allowing 124 yards per game on the ground. I expect to see more of the same from their defense which makes for ample opportunity for Rhamondre Stevenson