Week 5 Sunday Matchups

Thursday got Week 5 started off on the tight foot for us. Our Best Bet cashed in the first half and we are back to keep the hot streak going.

To start, I’ll highlight the best value bets that I can find. I’ve gone through the slate and picked four Best Bets and provided some background on each. I have put together a parlay for the day as well. Let’s make some money.

Best Bets

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards o35.5 (-110) FanDuel
Tee Higgins Receiving Yards o52.5 (-110) FanDuel
Jayden Reed Receiving Yards o71.5 (-110) FanDuel
George Pickens Receiving Yards o54.5 (-110) FanDuel

Best Bet Background- Allen Lazard Rec Yds o35.5

The Jets have gotten off to a bit of rocky start. They are 2-2 as they fly across the pond to face a 4-0 Vikings team. Many pundits are crowing the Vikings as the best team in the NFL right now. We will see how long they can keep the crown. They are very balanced on offense and on defense. they currently rank 4th in both points scored and points allowed per game. Being top 5 in both of these categories are going to win a lot of games. In fact, the Vikings have only trailed for 3 minutes this season. They are clearly firing on all cylinders. Due to the fact that they have been leading for a majority of the season, it allows their defense to set up in shell coverage and employ a “bend-don’t-break” type of defense. As a result, the one area of this team that is not towards the top of the charts is their pass yards allowed. They are currently allowing 274 pass yards a game which ranks last in the NFL.

That is where Aaron Rodgers will be able to make us some money today. His chemistry with Allen Lazard is undeniable. They have faced the Vikings several times going back to their Green Bay days. They are on the same page and despite many thinking that Garrett Wilson was going to be the Wr1, Lazard is the team’s leading receiver with a stat line of 16 rec, 206 yards, and 3 TDs. He has eclipsed his line today (35.5) in 3/4 of the games so far this year. I believe that Rodgers will continue to lean on Lazard in the pass game as they face an uphill battle against a tough Vikings defense.

Best Bet Background- Tee Higgins Rec Yds o52.5

Higgins started the year on the injury report but has played the past couple of games. He shad minimal production in his first game against Washington but was much more productive last week. He caught 6 balls for 60 yards against the Panthers. Now that he is fully back and getting more involved in the pass game, he needs to have a big day against the AFC North rival Ravens. He has had some success against the Ravens. He is averaging 59 yards a game against the Baltimore defense. Additionally, the Bengals have not been able to run the ball. I would expect Burrow to be throwing early and often today.

The Baltimore defense has been very good against the run. In fact, they are the best rush defense in the league only allowing 57 yards a game. Considering that the Bengals cannot run the ball, they will have to take advantage of the Baltimore pass defense which is 29th in the league and allowing 257 yards a game. Ja’marr Chase is going to get a lot of attention which opens the door for Tee Higgins to have a big day. Expect Higgins to easily gain over 53 yards today.

Best Bet Background – Jayden Reed Rec Yds o71.5

The Packers got their QB back last week but then lost two of their receivers this week. Christian Watson is missing today with an injury and Romeo Doubs was suspended after voicing his frustration about his role in the offense. That leaves Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks as the top targets for Jordan Love. Love had a crazy stat line in his return last week where he went 32/54 for 389 yards, 4 TDs, and 3 interceptions. 139 of those yards were caught by Jayden Reed. Reed ‘s involvement in the offense has been inconsistent so far this year. However, when he has been heavily involved, he makes huge plays. Week 1 he caught 4 balls for 138 yards and 1 td. He also ran the ball in for a score on a 33-yard td. This week, he will be heavily relied upon as the Green Bay offense goes against a weak and banged up Rams defense.

The LA Rams have been bit by the injury bug this season. Stafford is banged up and his top 2 receivers are out for an extended period. as a result, there is a lot of pressure being placed on this Rams defense and they have been struggling. They rank 31st in points allowed, 21st in pass yards allowed, and dead last in rush yards allowed. The Packer offense should have a big day at the office. However, you should never count out a Sean McVay team so I think we can expect a competitive game between these two teams and while the Packers will certainly lean on Josh Jacobs to run the rock, Jayden Reed is also poised to have a big game against the Rams. Expect him to go for over 71 yards in a game that will have a lot of offese.

Best Bet Background – George Pickens Rec Yds o54.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are facing the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Both have had unexpected starts to the season so far. No one expected the Cowboys to struggle to get to 2-2 and certainly no one expected the Steelers to be 3-1 four weeks in. A big storyline for the Steelers has been their quarterback. They went out and traded for both Russ Wilson and Justin Fields. Wilson was the expected starter but has been sidelined with an injury. This gave Justin Fields the opportunity and he has been making the most of it. He is operating OC Arthur Smiths offense incredibly efficiently. They take care of the ball, run down the clock, and allow their stellar defense to win games. That being said, they have an electric wide receiver in George Pickens who has been having a decent season in a run heavy offense. He has hit the over on his line tonight in 3 out of 4 games so far. He is the clear number 1 target in this offense and 54.5 yards is too low of a line.

He faces a struggling Dallas defense that is last in run yards allowed and 20th in pass yards allowed. They currently allow 209 yards a game through the air. Despite a win, they got cooked for over 100 yards last week by rookie Malik Nabers. They have been struggling to adapt to Mike Zimmers new scheme and I do not think that they will have it fixed this week. While I do expect the Steelers to run against this week run defense, they will still have to pass the ball. When they do, Fields is going to be looking for Pickens who should easily eclipse his line for today.

Parlay (+442)