Week 11 Thursday Best Bet

Week 10 kicks off with a great Thursday Night Matchup between the Eagles and the Commanders. From a betting perspective, we are coming off of a 3-3 Best Bets week. We are riding the 50% roller coaster recently, but we are going to turn it around tonight. Below, I have some background on the matchup and a Best Bet for the game. I am excited for a great night of ball and a great week 11.

First things first, the Best Bet.

Best Bet

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards o34.5(-110) FanDuel

Commanders @ Eagles

We have a great NFC east matchup in tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. The 7-3 Commanders travel to Philly to take on the 7-2 Eagles. The NFC East crown is up for grabs. The Eagles have been playing up to expectations for the talent that is on this roster. Their offense has gotten healthy and has gone on a 5-game win streak. Meanwhile, the Commanders are the surprise of the NFL. Rookie sensation, Jayden Daniels, has this Washington team rolling as they battle for NFC East supremacy. There is a ton of history between these two teams, but the last 5 matchups are 4-1 in the Eagles favor. We will see if this recent trend continues tonight.

The Commanders offense has begun to take shape under new offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, and his rookie quarterback. They are currently the 3rd highest scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 29 points per game. They rely heavily on their run game. They have two backs and the legs of Jayden Daniels to rely on. The trio has this Washington run offense ranked 4th in the league by averaging 153 yards per game. Their pass game is averaging 223 yards per game which puts them at 11th in the league. They have their hands full with a tough Eagles defense.

The Commanders defense is beginning to look improved as time goes on. They have begun to take on the identity of their head coach, Dan Quinn. They are doing better against the pass, where they are ranked 5th in the league only allowing 182 yards per game. They have been struggling more against the run. They are ranked 28th and are allowing 142 yards per game. This matchup is tough for them against an Eagles run game that features Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. The Commanders will need to get ahead in the scoring in order to force the Eagles to pass. As a whole, they are allowing 21.7 points per game which is 12th in the league.

The Eagles offense has been putting up points at an average of 25.9 points per game. This puts them at 7th in the league. They are doing it primarily because of their run game. They rank second in the league in running the ball and are averaging 176 yards per game. With the Commanders defense struggling against the run, the matchup to watch would be Saquon and Jalen Hurts on the run. Even with weapons like AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, the pass offense is only averaging 197 yards per game. That ranks them at 20th in the league.

On defense, the Eagles are much improved from last year. They are allowing 17.9 points per game which is 5th in the league. Teams have struggled to move the ball against this team in general. They rank 3rd against the pass, allowing 173 yards per game and 5th against the run allowing 100 yards per game. They face a Washington offense that has been explosive at times but can be stifled at other times. This is yet another matchup that favors the Eagles.

Best Bet Background – Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Over 34.5

Zach Ertz has been a staple in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense since their time together in Arizona. He has also become a safety option for Jayden Daniels. Ertz is currently averaging 38.1 yards per game. This will also be Ertz’s first time returning to the Linc. I expect him to play a large part in today’s game as he wants to show out in front of his former home crowd. Additionally, as the Commanders will need to keep pace with the Eagles offense, I expect the Commanders to be passing the ball quite a bit. With Ertz being the second leading receiver on the team, look for him to easily achieve more than 35 yards receiving tonight.