Week 16 is here which means that there are only 3 weeks left of the NFL regular season. It is crazy how quickly it has gone by. We are in the time of year where teams are either looking ahead to the offseason (shoutout to my Giants) or are making the push for the playoffs. Two of those playoff hopeful teams face off in an AFC West showdown today. We have a TNF game between the Chargers and the Broncos. I have provided some background on this division rivalry and picked out the bet that I believe will hit tonight. It should be a great game between these two rivals. First things first, the Best Bet!

Best Bet

Ladd McConkey Rec Yds over 64.5 (-110) Fanduel

Broncos @ Chargers

Match-up Overview and History

The 9-5 Broncos are traveling to Los Angeles to take on the 8-6 Chargers. These two teams have a ton of familiarity with one another. They have faced each other 130 times. Denver currently holds the edge on the all-time series and leads it 73-56-1. They faced each other earlier this season on October 13th, where the Chargers won 23-16. However, there have been some changes since then. The Broncos have found their identity behind their rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, and find themselves in the drivers seat for a wild card spot. The Chargers have turned themselves around from the past few years and are also in the mix for a wild card spot. They have been struggling as of late but with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, you should never count this team out. The Chargers are favored in this game with the line at -2.5. The over/under is 41.5 ( Fanduel).

Broncos Offense

The Broncos offense has been a surprise so far this season. They will not wow you with the number of yards that they stack up, but they have been averaging 24 points per game, which is 10th in the league. Through the air, they are averaging 202 yards per game which is 23rd in the league. This is led by Bo Nix who has been doing a decent job of taking care of the ball. He has 20 TDs compared to 11 interceptions. He is coming off of his worst game last week where he threw 3 interceptions against the Colts. He relies heavily on Courtland Sutton who is leading the team in receptions (66), yards (878), and TDs (6). On the ground, they are averaging 108 yards per game, which is 20th in the league. They have a runningback by committee approach where they rely on Javonte Williams, Jaleel Mclaughlin, and the legs of Bo Nix. They face a Chargers defense that has been struggling against the run and are decent against the pass. It will be interesting to see how Sean Payton game plans against this defense.

Broncos Defense

The Denver defense has been one of the best in the leagues. They are tied (with the Chargers) for first in points allowed, only allowing 17.6 points per game. They have been able to force turnovers in addition to keeping teams out of the endzone. The Broncos as a whole are +5 in takeaway differential. They have been almost impossible to run against. They are allowing 98 yards per game which is 5th in the league. The Chargers do not run the ball that well without JK Dobbins so this match up favors the Broncos. Against the pass, the Broncos are 16th by allowing 216 yards per game. They have one of the best corners in the game with Pat Surtain II to shut down opposing wide receivers. However, if there was a vulnerability to this defense, it might be the passing defense.

Chargers Offense

The Chargers offense has been fairly similar to the Broncos. They have found ways to win despite not blowing anyone away with their offensive numbers. They are scoring 21 points per game which is 20th in the league. Through the air, they are averaging 196 yards per game, which is 25th in the league. This is led by quarterback, Justin Herbert, who has passed for almost 3000 yards and 16 TDs and only 2 interceptions. He has done a great job of managing the game and coming up big in the clutch moments. He has been relying on his rookie wide receiver, Ladd McConkey, who is leading the team in receptions (63) and yards (873). He is second on the team in terms of TDs (5). On the ground, the Chargers are averaging 105 yards per game which is 22nd in the league. They are without J.K Dobbins now, who was their leading rusher. It seems like they will need to rely on the arm of Justin Herbert tonight in order to win this game.

Chargers Defense

The Chargers defense is tied for first with the Broncos in points per game, allowing 17.6 points per game. They are taking the ball away at a high rate as they are +11 in takeaway differential, which is 4th in the league. Against the pass, the Chargers have been allowing 211 yards per game, which is 10th in the league. They are allowing 125 yards per game on the ground, which is 19th in the league. The defense is coming off of their worst week so far this year, where they allowed 40 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs. They struggled to stop the run game of the Bucs which could continue to be an issue against the Broncos on a short week. However it plays out tonight, this should be a good defensive game tonight.

Best Bet Background – Ladd McConkey Rec Yds over 64.5

McConkey has been averaging 67.2 yards per game this season. He has recently emerged as the top target for Justin Herbert as the Chargers have begun to rely on their pass game. Typically, I would be cautious of a WR1 going against Patrick Surtain II, however, wide receivers have been able to have big games against this Denver defense lately. Jerry Jeudy cooked them for 235 yards two weeks ago. Jakobi Meyers went for 121 against them They allowed 58 to Michael Pittman Jr. and a Colts team that does not pass the ball well at all. Without a solid run game, the Chargers may have no other choice but to pass and McConkey figures to play a major role in that gameplan.