Week 9 is here and so is our Best Bet and matchup analysis. Last week, we had a big of a slide on our Best Bets. Tonight, we have the Ravens flying to Miami to take on the Dolphins. I have gone through the available bets for tonight and picked the one that I think should be a lock. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards over 65.5

Ravens @ Dolphins

Match-up Overview and History

Tonight, the 2-6 Dolphins are hosting the 2-5 Ravens. These two teams have been struggling in the early season with injuries but tonight, they have the chance to start the turnaround with some players coming back from the injury report. These teams have faced each other 19 times. The Ravens have the edge in the all-time series 11-8. The most recent game was on December 31, 2023, and it was a 56-19 Baltimore victory.

The Ravens are a 7.5-point favorite tonight, and the point total is set at 51.5. 72% of the public bets are being placed on the Ravens. The money is following that same trend as 76% of the money is being placed on the Ravens. The public is clearly expecting a high scoring affair as well. 62% of the bets and 82% of the money is being placed on the over. In terms of covering the spread, Miami is 4-4 this season and Baltimore 2-5 against the spread.

Game Odds

Ravens Offense

Baltimore gets their quarterback back tonight. Lamar Jackson will be taking the field for the first time in 4 weeks since dealing with a hamstring injury. To illustrate how ineffective the pass offense was without Lamar, he is still the leading passer on the team. He has thrown for 869 yards and 10 TDs. The pass game as team is averaging 182 yards per game which is 28th in the league. They face a Dolphins team who has struggled to defend against much so it could be a chance for their pass game to get back on track. While the pass game has been struggling, the run game has started to live up to the expectations. The team is averaging 133 yards per game, which is 8th in the league. The leading rusher is Derrick Henry with 510 yards and 6 TDs. Henry has struggled early on but had a breakout performance last week. He got a big boost from the return of fullback Patrick Ricard. Ricard as a lead blocker and the return of the threat of Lamar is only going to open up running lanes for King Henry. Miami has one of the worst defenses against the run, so it could be a big night for the Ravens run game. In terms of points, the Ravens are scoring 24.9 points per game, which is 13th in the league.

Ravens Defense

On defense, Baltimore has been struggling to stop opponents. They are allowing an average of 30 points per game which is 30th in the league. They are not able to stop anyone through the air or the on the ground. They are allowing 250 pass yards per game, which is 28th in the league. On the ground, they are allowing 128 yards per game which is 23rd in the NFL. They have gotten a bit healthier on this side of the ball as they get Kyle Van Noy, Kyle Hamilton, and Nate Wiggins at full health. Look for some improvement from this Ravens defense tonight.

Dolphins Offense

Miami’s offense is also failing to live up to expectations. They are 21st in the league in points scored. They are averaging 21.8 points per game, which is down significantly from previous years with this defense. The injury to Tyreek Hill was a major loss for this offense but even before he was lost for the year, this offense was not looking good. So far, they are averaging 187 pass yards per game, which is 26th in the NFL. On the ground, they have not been faring much better. They are averaging 98 yards per game, which is 23rd in the NFL. Similar to the Ravens, they had a breakout game last week when running the ball. They have the chance to continue their growth against a bad Ravens run defense tonight.

Dolphins Defense

The Dolphins are allowing 26.9 points per game, which is 26th in the league. They are also allowing a ton of yards. They are 28th in the league against the run, allowing 145 yards per game. Through the air, they are allowing 199 yards per game. They do not match up too well against the Ravens but they will need to be on their game if they want to stay in this game.

Best Bet Background – Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards over 65.5

Waddle has stepped his game up ever since Tyreek Hill went down with a season ending injury. In the 4 games where Waddle has been WR1, he has gone over his line for tonight in 3/4 games. He has a favorable matchup against a defense that can be picked on through the air. Additionally, Waddle has the speed for the big play. In those 3 games, he has a catch for over 40 yards in each of them. The only game where he had a bad game was the Cleveland game where there were 40 mph wind gusts and the Dolphins were unable to pass the ball. I would expect Waddle to have a big night against a vulnerable Ravens defense.