Week 11 is here and so is our Best Bet and matchup analysis. Last week, 1-5 on our Best Bets and took a break on Monday for some personal travel. Our Best Bets have not been hitting at the rate that they were last year but there is still plenty of time to turn things around. It all begins with 1 win tonight. Tonight, we have tan AFC East matchup between the Jets and Patriots. I have gone through the available bets for tonight and picked the one that I think should be a lock. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Drake Maye Passing + Rushing Yards over 262.5

Jets @ Patriots

Match-up Overview and History

Tonight, the 2-7 Jets are traveling to New England to take on the 8-2 Patriots. These two teams have plenty of history as they face each other twice a year. They have faced each other 132times. The Patriots have the edge in the all-time series 75-56-1. The most recent game was on October 27, 2024, and it was a 25-22 Patriots victory.

The Patriots enter tonight’s game as heavy favorites. They are 12.5 point favorites at home. The public is currently split pretty evenly on the points, with 58% of the bets being on the Patriots -12.5 and 55% of the money being on the Jets +12.5. The point total for the game is at 42.5. The public seems split on this as well with 56% of the bets being on the over and 68% of the money being placed on the under. It will be a cold night in Foxborough, so that would typically lend itself to a low scoring game. This year, the Patriots are 7-2 against the spread. The Jets are 5-4 this year against the spread.

Game Odds

Jets Offense

The Jets are having one of the worst offensive performances this year. They are 25th in points scored, averaging 21.7 points per game. They have no semblance of a pass game. They are the worst passing attack in the NFL averaging 143 pass yards per game. Their quarterback, Justin Fields, has been performing so poorly that his yards total line is 129.5 tonight and that might still be too high. His top target, Garrett Wilson, has missed several games. He has had to rely on his running back, Breece Hall, for production in the pass game. On the ground, they have been much more effective. They are the 4th ranked running attack in the league, averaging 141 yards per game. The strengths of this offense does not line up well for the matchup tonight. The Patriots have one of the best run defenses and will most likely be playing with a lead, which will force the Jets to throw the ball. The Jets will need to keep this game close, control the clock, and find ways to move the ball on this defense. Otherwise, this Jets offense is not built to come back against a good defense.

Jets Defense

The defense for the Jets have not been performing much better than the offense. They are allowing 26.8 points per game, which is 26th in the NFL. They traded away two of their key defensive players at the deadline. They are now down a star corner and a star defensive lineman, which would point to an uphill battle for this unit tonight. The Jets have been fairly decent against the pass, allowing 190 yards per game. That puts them as the 8th ranked pass defense. Against the run, they are ranked 25th, allowing 138 yards per game. With the exit of two key players, this defense is poised to start falling apart. They had a good outing against the Browns last week but Cleveland’s offense is not going to be considered a true test by anyone. that test comes tonight against the betting favorite for the league MVP.

Patriots Offense

New England has turned back the clock and finds themselves atop of the AFC East standings. A major reason has been the play of their offense. They are scoring 26.5 points per game, which is 8th in the league. They have the odds-on favorite for MVP at the helm. Their quarterback, Drake Maye, has taken a gigantic leap in his second year. He is leading this pass offense to an average 241 yards per game, which is 8th in the league. On the ground, the Patriots are averaging 117 yards per game, which is 16th. They have an opportunity to improve their run game against a weak Jets run defense tonight, which is help set up their play action pass game. It should be a fun night for the Patriots offense against this Jets defense.

Patriots Defense

With Mike Vrabel in charge, you can expect his team to be sound on the defensive side of the ball. This has been true so far for the Patriots this season. They are allowing 19.2 points per game, which is 6th in the NFL. They are the top run defense in the league, allowing 79 rush yards per game. If there was a weakness to point to, it would be their pass defense. They are allowing 227 yards per game, which is 21st in the NFL. A few explanations could be offered for that high average. The Patriots have been winning in most of their games, so teams have been passing more often to try and claw back into games. Looking at the points allowed, the Patriots look to employ a bend- don’t break method of defense. They should be able to force the Jets to throw the ball, which of course favors the Patriots throughout the night.

Best Bet Background – Drake Maye Passing + Rushing Yards over 262.5

Drake Maye has been on a tear this year. He is doing it through the air and with his legs. He is averaging 283 total yards per game this year. He has gone over 263 yards in 8/10 games so far. 80% of the time is a pretty good hit rate and he faces a Jets defense that has shown to be susceptible to the run. If the Patriots are able to run the ball, it will set up play action passes. If his receivers are covered, Maye has shown the ability to pull the ball down and run. Even though the spread is -12.5, this is still a division game. This game might end up being closer than people expect and the Patriots will not abandon the pass in a close game. Look for Maye to have a big performance in primetime tonight.