NFL Week 13: Thanksgiving and Black Friday Best Bets

Happy Thanksgiving! Week 13 kicks off with 3 games today and a Black Friday game tomorrow. Last week, we went 3-3 on our Best Bets. I have gone through the available bets for today and tomorrow and picked the ones that I think should be a lock. Let’s make some money!

Best Bets

Romeo Doubs Receiving Yards over 44.5
Rashee Rice Receiving Yards over 75.5
Derrick Henry Rush Yards over 92.5
D’Andre Swift Rush Yards over 40.5

Best Bet Background – Romeo Doubs Receiving Yards over 44.5

The first game of the Thanksgiving slate kicks off at 1 PM. The Green Bay Packers are traveling to Detroit to take on the Lions in an NFC North showdown. These teams faced off against one another in week 1 and it was a dominant win by the Packers. Both teams are vying for the top spot in the division, so this game is incredibly important for both teams. Our best bet for this game is going to be Romeo Doubs getting over 44.5 receiving yards. Doubs is the top target and leading receiver for this Packers team. They recently lost Tucker Kraft for the year and will be without Matthew Golden today. That means that Jordan Love will need to rely on his other receivers like Doubs and Christian Watson to move the ball through the air. The Lions are coming off of an overtime win against the Giants where the defense was on the field a ton. As a whole, they are the 15th ranked pass defense, allowing 210 yards per game, which means that the Packers will have their chances to throw. I would expect Doubs to step up and have a huge impact on this game.

Best Bet Background – Rashee Rice Receiving Yards over 75.5

The 4 PM game is going to kick off in Dallas as the Chiefs are taking on the Cowboys. Both teams are hovering right above .500 on the year and are in desperate need of a win for their playoff hopes to stay alive. The Chiefs are coming off of a huge win over the Colts. A major factor in that game was getting the ball to Rashee Rice. Rice had 141 yards in his best game since coming back from suspension. Today, he faces one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Cowboys have the 30th ranked pass defense and are allowing 252 yards per game. Their run defense has not been great but have started to improve with the addition of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson at the trade deadline. I would expect their run defense to continue to improve and take away the Chiefs run game, forcing them to pass. Patrick Mahomes should be able to take advantage of the weak Dallas secondary, and I would expect him to lean on Rice to get the job done.

Best Bet Background – Derrick Henry Rush Yards over 92.5

The 8 PM game is going to be between the Bengals and Ravens. This AFC North matchup is always must watch and tonight is no exception. The Bengals are getting Joe Burrow back at quarterback which sets the stage for a Thanksgiving classic between these teams. True to AFC North football, it will be a cold night in Baltimore that calls for running the ball and playing physical football. In those situations, the Ravens have the perfect guy to lean on to help get the victory. Derrick Henry has had a down year for his standards but is poised for a breakout performance tonight. The Bengals have the 31st ranked run defense, allowing 156 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Ravens are averaging 138 yards on the ground per game. With the potential of this game going back-and-forth, controlling the clock through the run is going to be vital. I think we are in store for a classic Derrick Henry cold weather game where he is able to break a few long runs.

Best Bet Background – D’Andre Swift Rush Yards over 40.5

The Black Friday game kicks off at 3 PM tomorrow. We will see the Bears travel to Philly to take on the Eagles. The Bears are probably one of the bigger surprises this year as they sit at 8-3. The Eagles are also 8-3 but if you listen to Philly fans, you would think that they have yet to win a game. They are winning ugly and their offense has not been great. Their brand of football sets the stage for a close hard-fought game. Those types of games call for the run game to play a key role. The running game is central to the Bears offensive scheme as Ben Johnson likes to use it to set up the play action pass game. He has been using running back D’Andre Swift very effectively this year. Swift is averaging 64.9 yards per game this year. The Eagles are allowing 115 yards per game on the ground. There is also the revenge game angle for Swift, who played for the Eagles 2 seasons ago and was allowed to walk He will have something to prove against his former team, and I believe he should gain over 41 yards easily.