Buccaneers at Cowboys

Week 5 of the NFL kicks off tonight with a game between the 0-4 Bucs and the 2-2 Dallas Cowboys. The Bucs desperately need a win to get their season back on track while the Cowboys need to win to keep pace in the NFC East race. I have picked what I believe to be the Best Bet for the matchup. Let’s win some money!

Best Bet: Jalon Daniels Rush Yards over 44.5

Odds

The Public Numbers

The Cowboys come into this game as 8.5 point favorites. Currently, 72% of the public best and 67% of the public money are being placed on Dallas to cover 8.5. An overwhelming majority of the public believes that Dallas will win outright, regardless of the spread. 94 of the bets and 89% of the money is being placed on Dallas mL. The total is set at 48.5 and the public is expecting points. 73% of the bets and 84% of the money are being placed on the over.

Dallas is currently 3-1 against the spread while Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS this year.

Match-up Overview

These teams have played each other 23 total times. The Cowboys lead the all-time series 17-6. The most recent game was a 26-24 Dallas victory on December 22nd, 2024. Over the last 5 games, Dallas has won 3 of 5.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gotten off to a horrific start that has been compounded by injuries. They will be without their starting QB, Baker Mayfield, for the foreseeable future. That means that undrafted rookie, Jalon Daniels is the starter. Daniels got his first start last week against the Packers, a game in which the Bucs lost 17-14. Daniels went 19/27 for 148 yards, 1 TD, and 2 interceptions in his first career start. He also had 55 rush yards. He will have to lean on the talent around him like running back Bucky Irving, who has 241 rushing yards on the season and will have a bigger role in the offense going forward. Daniels will have a decent crop of receivers like Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Cade Otton to lean on in the pass game. The offense overall has struggled with consistency as they ranked 24th in points scored,28th in pass yards, and 17th in rush yards. Luckily, they are facing a Dallas defense that has yet to gel and are allowing a lot of yards and points.

If the Bucs have any shot at winning this game, they will need their defense to show up. They have been allowing 24 points per game, which is 19th in the NFL. They are allowing just 78 run yards per game, which is 3rd in the NFL and 204 pass yards per game, which is 9th in the league. A point of concern will be the secondary who will be missing Antoine Winfield and Benjamin Morrison due to injury. That is a daunting matchup against a Dallas offense that is built to throw the ball.

Dallas showed off their pass game last week against the Texans where they threw for 324 yards. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb in particular shined and connected 17 times for 189 yards and a TD. They also managed to get George Pickens involved for 2 catches and 27 yards. They have a chance for another big game tonight against a banged up secondary. As a whole, their pass game is averaging 258 yards per game, which is 7th in the league. Their leading rusher has been Javonte Williams who has 231 yards and 5 TDs. The Dallas rushing attack as a whole is averaging 89 yards per game, which is 25th in the league. The key to success tonight for Dallas will be to build the lead through the air and work to establish the run against a stout Tampa run defense.

The Achilles heel for the Dallas team so far this year has been their defense. Despite being pretty talented across the board, they have yet to put together a full game. They are allowing 28 points per game, which is 28th in the league. They are allowing 239 pass yards per game, which is 24th, and 150 run yards per game, which is 31st in the league.

Injuries

Buccaneers

• Baker Mayfield (QB) – Out
• Antoine Winfield (S) – Out
• Benjamin Morrison (CB) – Out
• Jalen McMillan (WR) – Out

Cowboys

• Drew Shelton (OT) – Out
• Tyler Smith (G) – Questionable
• Cobie Durant (CB) – Out
• Demarvion Overshown (LB) – Out

Best Bet Background: Jalon Daniels Rush Yards over 44.5

Tonight’s best bet is going to be placed on the shoulders of an undrafted rookie QB. Jalon Daniels has the ability to scramble and showed it off last week against the Packers when he had 55 yards on the ground. The Dallas defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks, allowing 50+ yards to 3 of 4 QBs that they have played. The only QB to run for under 50 yards has been CJ Stroud, who isn’t known for his running. Young QBs typically run a simplified version of an offense where they run at the first sign of coverage. I think that will be the case tonight. Daniels will most likely try to keep his team in the game with his legs and should be able to gain over 45 yards against a bad Dallas defense.