NFL Week 1: Monday Night Football Best Bet and Preview

Broncos at Chiefs

Our Best Bets went 3-1 yesterday and are 3-2 with a push for the week. Tonight, we have the Broncos and Chiefs playing on Monday Night Football to wrap up a crazy Week 1. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe will hit. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet: Travis Kelce Receiving Yards over 41.5

Game Odds

The Public Numbers

The Chiefs come into this game as a 2.5-point favorite with the total points set at 43.5. The public seems to be favoring the Chiefs in a closely won game. 64% of the bets and 88% of the money is being placed on Chiefs to win this one outright. However, 72% of the bets and money are being placed on Broncos +2.5. The public is also anticipating a low scoring game with 79% of the bets and 60% of the money being placed on the under.

Match-up Overview

These AFC West rivals have played each other 132 times and Kansas City holds the edge in the all-time series 73-59. More recently, Denver has gotten the better of the Chiefs. In the last 5 games, Denver has won 4. The most recent was a Christmas day game last year when the Broncos won 20-13.

The Broncos want to set the tone in this season opener. They fell one game short of the Super Bowl last year. The team was built on efficient offense and stout defense. They were 14th in points scored last year and 3rd in points allowed. They employed a balanced approach on offense averaging 223 pass yards per game and 118 run yards per game. This was ranked 11th and 16th respectively. QB Bo Nix is coming off of his best year so far. He had 3931 yards and 25 TDs last year. This year, he will have a brand-new weapon with Jaylen Waddle joining the team. Waddle fills out a receiver room that includes Courtland Sutton and Pat Bryant. The Chiefs struggled against the pass last year and have a new secondary, so this should be the matchup that Denver should be able to exploit. Denver will have J.K Dobbins back as their lead running back, which should provide a boost to this offense.

The Denver defense is probably one of the more talented groups in the league. They have great roster balance with some good rushers up front like Zach Allen and some great secondary players like Pat Surtain II. They were 7th against the pass last year, allowing 187 yards, and 2nd against the run, allowing just 91 yards per game. This defense is the reason why I am giving them the edge against the Chiefs tonight.

The offense of the Chiefs took a nosedive last season. They were scoring 21.3 points per game, which was ranked 21st in the league. They struggled to get anything going through the air or on the ground. They were averaging 214 pass yards per game, which was 16th in the league. and 106 run yards per game, which was 25th in the league. They get Patrick Mahomes back from a torn ACL this year. He is ahead of schedule in terms of normal recovery, so there might be some rust. KC will also have a new running back with Kenneth Walker being the newest addition in the offseason. The matchups to watch will be Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce against the pass defense of the Broncos.

On defense, the Chiefs will have the same play caller but will be debuting new talent in the secondary. As a whole, they were 6th in points allowed last year, allowing 19.3 points per game. They were 12th against the pass and 9th against the run. However, they will have new starting corners with L’Jarius Sneed returning to the team and Mansoor Delane making his NFL debut. The safety room is banged up with Chamarri Connor slated to miss tonight’s game. It should be an interesting matchup between the pass game of the Broncos and a new secondary of the Chiefs.

Injuries

Chiefs

Josh Simmons (OT) – Out
Chamarri Connor (S) – Out

Broncos

Jonathon Cooper (LB) – Out – Placed on Commissioner exempt list

Best Bet Background – Travis Kelce Receiving Yards over 41.5

Travis Kelce may not be what he once was, but he will still be a reliable target for Patrick Mahomes in his return. Kelce has solid history against Denver over his career. In 22 games, he is averaging 6.3 receptions and 75.6 yards against the Broncos. Tonight, he will have his QB1 all the way back as well as his old OC Eric Bienemy. The Denver defense was ranked 7th in the NFL against the pass last year, so this could prove to be a difficult matchup. However, 41.5 is not unrealistic for Kelce. While the public is betting heavy on the Chiefs to win, I think that they still need to prove that they are better than last year’s record showed. Denver should be able to get a lead on this team, so the Chiefs might need to come from behind. That means that they will be throwing the ball and there is no one that Mahomes trusts more than Travis Kelce.