The NFC South is always an odd division to predict. This was true once again in 2025. 3 teams finished 8-9 and tied for 1st in the division. The Panthers ultimately won the division due to tiebreakers and they were the only team that made the playoffs. As the 2026 season is about to kick off, the oddities of the NFC South continue. The Falcons have a new coaching staff and are still trying to figure out their quarterback situation. It has been a multi-year process for them. The Panthers are riding the high of winning the division but will have a tough schedule ahead. The Saints have a ton of hope and momentum headed into this year but has been dealing with the injury bug during camp. The Bucs are dealing with several franchise players leaving and other franchise players trying to get new contracts in place. It’s shaping up to be an interesting division once again this year.
Division Winner Odds
Atlanta Falcons – 6.5
- Head Coach – Kevin Stefanski
- OC – Tommy Rees
- DC – Jeff Ulbrich
- 2025 Record – 8-9
- Strength of Schedule – 19th Easiest
The 2025 season for the Falcons was on par with the rest of the division. They finished 8-9 alongside the Panthers and Buccaneers. However, they were left on the outside looking in and lost the 3-way tiebreaker for the division title and missed the playoffs. Falcons ownership decided it was time for changes on an organizational level and fired their head coach and general manager. They brought in Ian Cunningham as their GM and Kevin Stefanski as their head coach.
Stefanski comes over from the Browns where he had a record of 45-56, won coach of the year twice, and went 1-2 in playoff games. He brought Tommy Rees with him from Cleveland to be his OC. He also will keep Jeff Ulbrich as the Atlanta DC. Ulbrich had a significant impact on the defense last year, so this is an important retainment.
Offense
The new offense play caller will also potentially have a new quarterback. Last year’s starter, Michael Penix, has been fighting to come back from a torn ACL. He started 9 games in 2025 where he threw for 1982 yards, 9 TDs, and 3 interceptions. He showed good ball security prior to his injury. He is still viewed as the quarterback of the future, but should Penix be unable to go, they brought in Tua Tagovailoa as a free agent. Tua is looking to rehab his image as a starter in the league. He was 44-32 as a starter in Miami but had a tough time staying healthy and had a very bad showing in 2025. He went 6-8 and threw for 2660 yards, 20 TDs and 15 interceptions. This was a significant downturn from previous years. The quarterback situation is going to be one to monitor for Atlanta. They have a ton of talent on the offense; they just need the right guy to be their point man.
The best of the weapons on this offense is Bijan Robinson. Robinson is an elite running back and was rewarded this offseason with a 3-yar extension worth up to $75 million. He is as dangerous as any player in the league. Atlanta uses him in both the run and pass game and he excels at both. Last year, he had 1478 rush yards and 820 receiving yards. He had 7 rush TDs and 4 receiving TDs. His efforts earned him 1st Team All-Pro honors. He will have a new running mate with Brian Robinson who will most likely handle short yardage situations.
Th receivers for the Falcons will be Drake London, Jahan Dotson, and Olamide Zaccheaus. London is another key player in this offense that was given a monster contract extension this summer. He signed a 4-year extension worth up to $141 million. He is the clear cut WR1 in this offense and can be a very effective weapon depending on the quarterback situation. Last year, he was on his way to his best year but missed 5 games with an injury. He still finished the year with 68 receptions, 919 yards, and 7 TDs. Besides London, the receivers are pretty uninspiring. Dotson has played several inconsistent years in Washington and Philadelphia. He had 18 catches for 262 yards and 1 TD last year. Zaccheaus had 39 catches for 313 yards and 2 TDs last year. One of them will need to step up this year.
Should the receivers fail to emerge, the Falcons have their tight end Kyle Pitts to rely on. Pitts was also signed a new deal with the team this offseason. He agreed to a 3-year deal worth up to $54 million. Last year, he had his most productive season as a pro and earned the new contract. He had 88 catches for 928 yards and 5 TDs. He is the clear cut second option in the pass game.
The offensive line has four of their five starters returning to the lineup this year. The tackles will be Jake Matthews at left tackle and Jawaan Taylor at right tackle. Taylor is newly signed after leaving the Chiefs. He will play a pivotal role on this line since both quarterback options are left-handed. At guards will be Matthew Bergeron at left guard and Chris Lindstrom at right guard. Both are near the top of their position in the NFL. At center will be Ryan Neuzil, who started all 17 games last year for Atlanta.
Defense
Last year, the defense was ranked 19th in terms of points allowed. They were allowing 23.6 points per game. While those numbers are not outstanding, the big improvement from the previous year was the amount of sacks generated. In 2024 they were 30th and they finished 2nd in 2025.Jeff Ulbrich was retained as DC by Stefanski and will look to continue to improve this defense.
Beginning up front with the big guys, they will have Da’Shawn Hand at nose tackle. He had 29 total tackles and 1.5 sacks for the Chargers last year. Maason Smith will also rotate in at this position. He came over from Jacksonville in the offseason. The ends will be played by Brandon Dorlus and Zach Harrison. Dorlus had a breakout year in 2025 when he recorded 8.5 sacks. 27 tackles, and 3 TFLs. Harrison had 22 tackles and 4.5 sacks in just 7 games for the Falcons last year. This group will need to continue to generate pressure up the middle to set the tone for this defense.
The projected starters for the edge rushers are Za’Darius Smith and Samson Ebukam. Smith is a recent singing that the Falcons desperately needed to make. They will be without James Pearce, who is serving a suspension, and Jalon Walker, who will miss the season with a torn ACL. Smith is a veteran who brings 70.5 career sacks, 343 tackles, and 10 forced fumbles with him. Samson Ebukam is a veteran as well, who spent the last seasons with the Colts. He had 33 total tackles and 2 sacks last year. He will have the chance to have an impact on this defense with so many players missing.
The interior linebackers will be Divine Deablo and Christian Harris. They will have big shoes to fill this year with the exit of Kaden Elliss, who signed with the Saints in the offseason. Last year, Deablo had 73 total tackles, 1 sack, and 5 TFls. Christian Harris was brought in from Houston. He has struggled with some health over the past 2 seasons but is not too far removed from a 100-tackle season in 2023. The Falcons need him to return to form and bring some athleticism to the linebacker position.
The projected starters at corner will be A.J Terrell, Mike Hughes, and Darnay Holmes at nickel. Terrell is the unquestioned CB1 on this defense. Last year, he had 68 tackles, 12 passes defensed, and opposing QBs only completed 53.1% of their passes when targeting him. Mike Hughes is the CB2. He had 51 tackles, 1 interception, and 7 pass break ups last year in just 12 games. Darnay Holmes is now on his 3rd team after spending 4 years with the Giants and 2 years with the Raiders. He is a bit of a project player and will have to step up in a big way this year for Atlanta.
The starters at safety will be Jessie Bates and Xavier Watts. Bates is one of the best safeties in the game at the moment. He had 98 tackles, 3 interceptions, 6 pass break ups, and 1 forced fumble in 2025. He earned 2nd-Team All-Pro honors as well. Watts had a fantastic rookie year and complemented Bates very well. He had 5 interceptions, 96 tackles, and 11 pass break ups. This tandem will prove difficult to throw against and are certainly the best position group on this defense.
Summary
There were a lot of changes in Atlanta this offseason. They overhauled the front office, coaching staff, and their roster. They have a major question mark at quarterback with the health of Michael Penix up in the air. Tua Tagolivia was brought in to be the starter and there might be a QB controversy if he plays well. If he does not play well, then the Falcons are in some trouble. The defense also lost some key players in the offseason that will be tough to replace. Looking at their schedule, they have the 19th easiest schedule (projected) in the league. I find it hard to believe that a team with this tough of a schedule and all those changes will find a way to exceed expectations. I am taking the under for the Falcons.
Bet – Under 6.5 (-140)
Carolina Panthers – 7.5
- Head Coach – Dave Canales
- OC – Brad Idzik
- DC – Ejiro Evero
- 2025 Record – 8-9
- Strength of Schedule – 30th Easiest
The Panthers took a step in the right direction last year. They might have finished with a losing record but they took the NFC South title and made a playoff appearance. They then pushed the LA Rams to the brink in a thrilling Wild Card Playoff game. After a back-and-forth game, the Panthers took the lead with 2:39 left on the clock. Unfortunately for Carolina, the NFL MVP was sitting on the other sideline. Stafford led the Rams down the field and threw the game winning touchdown with 38 seconds left. Despite it being a loss, the Panthers came away from that game with a sense of pride for hanging with one of the leagues best teams. As they look towards 2026, they are looking to build on that momentum after a busy offseason.
Offense
One of the reasons the Panthers won the division was because of the emergence of quarterback Bryce Young. 2025 proved to be a clear improvement over the first 2 seasons of his career. He established himself as the starting quarterback and the leader of this team. He threw for 3011 yards, 23 TDs, and 11 interceptions. He also had 216 rush yards and 2 rush TDs. The Panthers will need Young to take another step this year because the offensive numbers for Carolina overall last year were not spectacular. They were 27th in points scored and 26th in pass yards per game. The quartback play obvisouy plays a huge role in these numbers and Young will need to step up.
The run game was not much better than the pass game. They averaged 116 yards per game, which was 19th in the league. This was due in part to the health of starting running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard started just 6 games in 2025 for 511 yards and 1 TD. In his absence, Rico Dowdle became the leading rusher for this team as he broke the 1000-yard mark. Dowdle is no longer with the team, so a healthy Hubard is slated to take the starting role back. Backing up Hubbard will be Jonathan Brooks who is returning from an ACL injury. They also signed A.J Dillion in free agency which gives the running back room some short yardage power. Overall, this group has potential, but Hubbard needs to remain healthy.
The Panthers struck gold with their 2025 1st round draft pick. Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan was voted to be the 2025 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. He had 70 receptions for 1014 yards and 7 TDs in his rookie year. He gave this offense a much-needed WR1. McMillan will continue to be Bryce Young’s go to target and will look to improve on his rookie season. The other starting receiver for this offense will be Jalen Coker. Coker had a solid 2025 where he had 33 receptions, 394 yards, and 3 TDs. He came on later in the year and is part of the optimism that they are carrying over to 2026. The 3rd receiver is Xavier Leggette who is entering a make-or-break year. It’s his 3rd year and has yet to live up to his 1stround draft status. He had 35 receptions for 363 yards and 3 TDs last year.
The tight end room has a few weapons that will be able to contribute to this pass attack as well. Tommy Tremble is currently listed as the starter. He had 27 receptions for 249 yards and 2 TDs. They also added Darren Waller to the room recently. Waller has been a superstar in this league prior to his retirement and subsequent unretirement. He came back last year to play for the Dolphins where he had 24 receptions for 283 yards and 6 TDs. It should be an interesting duo that will give the Panthers some extra firepower.
The offensive line has some cause for concern as the season begins. Their starting left tackle, Ikem Ekwonu, is hurt with a knee injury and is still working his way back to playing shape. their starting right tackle, Taylor Morton, is dealing with a blood clot issue that will force him to miss the start of the regular season. This means that newly signed Rasheed Walker is projected to start at left tackle and Monroe Freeling is projected to start at right tackle. The guards will be Damien Lewis at left guard and Robert Hunt at right guard. At center will be Luke Fortner, who was signed after last years starter, Cade Mays. left in free agency.
Defense
The defense for the Panthers was ranked 15th in points allowed by allowing 22.4 points per game in 2025. They struggled with getting pressure on the quarterback so it should be no surprise that they made an effort in the offseason to address this issue. It begins up front with nose tackle Bobby Brown. Brown had 31 total tackles in 2025. The star of the defensive line is clearly Derrick Brown. He had 73 tackles for 5 sacks, 5 TFLs, and 7 pass break ups. He is the centerpiece of the defense and will be setting the tone up front.
The edge rushers is where the Panthers need some more improvement. They brought in Jaelan Phillips to be their guy. Phillips is supremely talented but has not quite had his breakout year yet. He has battled injuries over the past several years but had a bit of a bounce back in 2025. He had 53 total tackles and 5 sacks. He is expected to be the primary pass-rush threat in this defense. The other edge rusher will be Patrick Jones, who missed all of 2025 with an injury. In 2024, he had 7 sacks with the Vikings. This duo will need to step up quickly if this defense is expected to improve.
The interior linebackers will be Devin Lloyd and Trevin Wallace. Lloyd was regarded as the top middle linebacker available in free agency this year. He comes over from Jacksonville where he played as a starter over the last 4 years. He earned 2nd-Team All Pro honors and was voted to his first Pro Bowl appearance. He had 81 total tackles, 1.5 sacks, 5 interceptions, and 1 TD last year. The Panthers are counting on him to bring that level of production to the middle of this defense. Trevin Wallace is entering his 3rd year with the team. He played in 12 games last year and had 61 total tackles, 5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. The Panthers are relying on these two linebackers to shore up the middle of their defense.
The secondary for the Panther might be one of the more underrated units in the league. Starting corner Jaycee Horn had 5 interceptions, 8 pass break ups, and 37 tackles last year. His efforts earned him his second trip to the Pro Bowl. On the other side of the field is Mike Jackson. He had 4 interceptions, 19 pass breakups, and 68 tackles in 2025. This tandem has the potential to be the best in the NFL if they are able to sustain their production. They currently have Chau Smith-Wade listed as their nickel. He is entering his 3rd year and had 56 total tackles and 1 interception in 2025.
The starting safeties will be Tre’von Moehrig and Nick Scott. Moehrig had 103 total tackles, 14 TFLs, 3 sacks, and 1 interception. Nick Scott led the Panthers last year in tackles with 111 tackles. This is a very strong pairing that cements a solid secondary for Carolina.
Summary
The Panthers obviously took a step in the right direction in 2025 as they won the division and pushed the Rams in the playoffs. They have a good young core of players on offense and added key talented pieces to their defense. The narrative about this team is that they are on the rise. However, I find it difficult to put much stock in a team that struggled to win more than 1 game in a row and finished last year with a losing record. The offensive line is a huge question mark for them and if you do not have a good line, you can’t run the ball or protect the quarterback effectively. They have the league’s 3rd most difficult schedule this year and I believe that they are in for a down year. I would take the under for the Panthers.
Bet – Under 7.5 (-136)
New Orleans Saints – 7.5
- Head Coach – Kellen Moore
- OC – Doug Nussmeier
- DC – Brandon Staley
- 2025 Record – 6-11
- Strength of Schedule – 3rd Easiest
2025 was a transition year for the Saints. It was the first year under head coach Kellen Moore. They struggled to find their footing early on in the season and were 2-8 by the time their bye week came around. In their final 7 games, they showed some fight and improvement and went 4-3 down the stretch. They ended the year at 6-11 and finished 4th in the NFC South. Part of this turnaround was making a quarterback switch from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough. Shough’s play inspired confidence that this team is taking with them into 2025.
Another source of confidence was the performance of their defense. They finished 16th in the league in points allowed per game, allowing 22.5 points per game. They made several additions to their team in the offseason which should position them for another exciting year.
Offense
Tyler Shough will be the day 1 starter this year. As a rookie, he started 9 games and went 5-4. He threw for 2384 yards, 10 TDs, and 6 interceptions. He also had 186 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. The offense showed a clear improvement whenever Shough took the field. It was a solid foundational start for Shough as he prepares for a full season as the undisputed starter. The offseason was an important time for the Saints to add weapons around Shough so that that he was in the best position to succeed.
One of the main additions was running back Travis Etienne. Etienne spent the last 4 seasons in Jacksonville with the Jaguars. Last year, he ran for 1107 yards and 7 TDs. He also had 292 yards and 6 TDs in the pass game. He is an explosive player that was brought in to be the lead back and should receive a substantial workload this year. He will be splitting carries with Alvin Kamara, who has been the lead back in New Orleans for several years. Now entering his 10th season, he is no longer the back he used to be but still has some gas left in the tank. Unfortunately, he suffered an MCL injury and is projected to miss about a month. Backing them up will be Kendre Miller who has shown flashes of talent but struggles to stay healthy.
The receivers will be a vital part of the development of Tyler Shough. He needs to have weapons to throw to and the Saints did their part in the offseason to get him some. They signed Chris Olave to an extension for 4 years and worth up to $132 million. He is the clear cut WR1 and will be the center of the passing game. In 2025, he 1163 yards, which was 8th in the league. He had 100 receptions, which was 7th in the league and 9 TDs which was tied for 8th in the league. The only concern with Olave is his ability to stay healthy. Should he stay healthy, he has potential to be the best receiver in the league.
Joining him will be rookie Jordyn Tyson. Tyson was drafted with the 8th overall pick in this years draft. Coming out of Arizona State, Tyson is a big-bodied receiver with explosive playmaking ability., He was expected to be the perfect complement to Olave. However, we will have to wait for his debut as he sustained a hamstring injury during training camp. It will force him to miss roughly 2 months, which will cut into the start of the season. Behind him, the Saints will have to rely on Devaughn Vele, Bryce Lance, and Barion Brown.
The tight ends will also contribute to the pass game with one of the better tight ends in the game. Juwan Johnson had 77 receptions for 889 yards and 3 TDs in 2025. This is an excellent stat line for a tight end. He was 2nd behind Olave in receiving yards for the team in 2025 and will continue to be an integral part of this offense. They also added Noah Fant in the offseason, who brings some more athleticism and receiving ability to the roster. He had 34 receptions for 288 yards and 3 TDs for the Bengals in 2025.
The starting offensive line has some intriguing youth and talent headed into 2026. The starting left tackle will be Kelvin Banks. He started all 17 games last year. At right tackle will be Taliese Fuaga, who is entering his 2nd year as a starter. The left guard is David Edwards, who was a veteran addition in the offseason. At right guard will be Cesar Ruiz, who is entering his 7th season with the team. At center is Erik McCoy, who is entering his 8th year with the team.
Defense
The defense for the Saints are entering their second season under DC Brandon Staley. Last year, they were allowing 22.5 points per game, which was ranked 16th. They excelled against the pass, only allowing 179 yards per game. This was ranked 4th in the league. They struggled more against the run, allowing 120 yards per game, which was 19th in the league. They need to improve against the run this year.
That starts up front with the defensive line. They will have Davon Godchaux as their nose tackle. He had 43 tackles and 1 forced fumble for the Saints last year. Playing next to him will be Cameron Jordan and John Ridgeway. Jordan is entering his 16th and final season with the Saints. He had 10.5 sacks last year and will be the leader on this line for one last ride. Ridgeway is entering his 5th season and gets an opportunity to start due to the injury of Bryan Breese. Breese tore his ACL in camp and will miss the season. He was poised to play a key role on this line this year. The other guys in the room will need to step up.
The outside linebackers and edge rushers will be Chase Young and Carl Granderson. Young has finally found a home in the NFL. He was drafted with the 2nd overall pick by Washington and never quite lived up to the hype. Last year, he had the best statistical season of his 6-year career. He had 38 total tackles, 10 sacks, and 5 TFLs. He is paired with Granderson who had 57 tackles and 6 sacks in 2025. This tandem will work with the defensive line to continue to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The interior linebackers will be Kaden Elliss and Pete Werner. Elliss was a big offseason addition. He had previously played for the Saints before spending some time with the Falcons. The Saints brought him back to play a pivotal role in this defense. He will replace the production of Demario Davis who left to join the Jets. He had 107 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and interception last year for the Falcons. He will line up next to Pete Werner, who the Saints are expecting to continue to row as a leader in this defense. He had 81 tackles, 2 sacks, and 7 TFLs last year.
The projected starting corners are Kool-Aid McKinstry and Quincy Riley. McKinstry had 76 tackles, 3 interceptions, and 8 passes defended in 2025. He has grown into a reliable corner and will most likely be matching up with opposing top receivers. Riley is entering his 2nd year in the league. He had 35 tackles, 1 interception, and 10 passes defended in his rookie year. At nickel, they have Jonas Sanker listed as their starter. He is a versatile player who had 80 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 7 passes defended in 2025. This is a solid group with some upside.
The starting safeties will be Justin Reid and Julian Blackmon. Reid is an 8-year veteran who joined the Saints last year. He had an immediate impact on the defense, bringing veteran leadership and solid production. He had 72 total tackles, 1 interception, and 6 passes defended in 2025. Blackmon only appeared in 1 game for the Saints last year due to injury. Now he is fully healthy and is expected to be a star in this defense.
Summary
The Saints went through a transitional year in 2025. This year, they are primed to compete for the NFC South. They have a clear-cut starting quarterback and surrounded him with some more talent. Giving him a full training camp as the starter and allowing him to have full control of the offense in 2026 can only improve his confidence and production. The defense will be entering their second year in the same system and still has the talent to shut other teams down. They have a pretty soft schedule this year, so the Saints are set up to over perform this year. I would take the over on the Saints.
Bet – Over 7.5(-120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9.5
- Head Coach – Todd Bowles
- OC – Zac Robinson
- DC – George Edwards
- 2025 Record – 8-9
- Strength of Schedule – 25th Easiest
The 2025 season was a tale of two halves for the Buccaneers. They started off 6-2 before stumbling down the stretch and finishing 8-9. They lost the tiebreaker in the NFC South to the Panthers and missed the playoffs. Injuries played a big part of the end of season collapse but the coaching of Todd Bowles was also called into question. After a disappointing end to the season, they made some key changes to the coaching staff. They brought in OC Zac Robinson from the Falcons. He had some success in 2024 when they had a stable quarterback situation. They also will have George Edwards as the DC instead of Todd Bowles himself. It will be interesting to see how these staff moves affect the team.
Offense
Despite some publicly heated contract situations the Bucs have their starting quarterback in Baker Mayfield. He is pushing for a long term extension while the Bucs are negotiating for a shorter deal. That will probably play itself out during the season or next offseason. On the field. they need Baker to return to full health. Last year, he threw for 3693 yards, 26 TDs, and 11 interceptions. It is theorized that the teams decline in the latter half of the season was due in part to Mayfield being injured. He plays a physical brand of football as a quarterback and will sometimes put himself in harms way. However, those are the types of plays that makes Baker so exciting to watch.
The running back room is being turned over to Bucky Irving this year. After a couple of seasons of splitting carries with Rachaad White, Irving is now the clear cut starter. He had 588 yards and 1 TD in 2025. He did that in only 9 games due to injury. He is entering an important 3rd season and is looking to prove that he is a 3 down back. The Bucs also signed Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason. Gainwell had a breakout year for the Steelers in 2025. He emerged as a great complementary piece. He had 537 yards and 5 TDs on the ground and 73 receptions for 486 yards and 3 TDs through the air. He will be a valuable piece in Zac Robinsons new offense.
The wide receivers will look slightly different this year. Long time Buc, Mike Evans, is now with the 49ers. Evans is a Hall of Fame level player who will not be easily replaced. However, the Bucs believe that they have a talented group that will prove to be dangerous this year. Chris Godwin gets elevated to WR1 this year. He has dealt with several injuries over his career but when healthy, he is as reliable as they come. The player to watch this year will be Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka is entering his 2nd year after a solid rookie year. He had 63 receptions for 938 yards and 6 TDs. He was explosive early on in the season but like the rest of the team, declined as the season wore on. 2026 is his chance to cement himself as a top young talent in the league. Pairing with him is Jalen McMillan who missed almost all of 2025. He might be the forgotten man in this offense and can have a breakout year in 2026.
The Bucs brought back their starting tight end Cade Otton. Otton agreed to a 3-year extension in the offseason. Last year, he had 59 receptions for 572 yards and 1 TD. He has proven in the past to be a valuable receiving target, especially when all the receivers were injured in 2024. He is also a very reliable blocker which will play key role in this new offensive scheme.
The starting offensive line has potential to be a strong point on this offense. They have Tristan Wirfs at left tackle. When healthy he is one of the best tackles in the league. At right tackle is Luke Goedeke. The guards will be Ben Bredeson at left guard and Cody Macuh at right guard. At center will be Graham Barto. The key to success for this group, much like the rest of the offense, will be health. This starting 5 did not play a single snap together as a group in 2025 due to injury.
Defense
Defense is supposed to be the specialty of Todd Bowles. However, they struggled in 2025. They were allowing 24.2 points per game, which was 20th in the league. They allowed 238 pass yards per game which was 27th in the league. They were very good against the run, allowing 99 yards per game which was 5th in the league. The pass defense will need to show a vast improvement this year for this team to have a chance to compete.
The projected starters on the defensive line are Vita Vea, Elijh Roberts, and A’Shawn Robinson. Vea is the superstar on this line. He is the nose tackle and was just rewarded with a 2-year extension worth up to $54 million. In 2025, he had 34 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 7 TFLs. Vea is a nightmare up front and Tampa is glad to have him locked up for the next few years. Robinson was brought in this offseason after being released form Carolina. he is a solid run defender and brings veteran experience with him. He had 6 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 2025. Elijah Roberts rounds out this line. Roberts is a 2nd year player that is looking to have a larger impact this year than his rookie season.
The edge rushers will be Yaya Diaby and Rueben Bain Jr. Diaby is primed for a breakout year. He had 7 sacks ,50 tackles, and 13 TFls in 2025. He also had 19 QB hits, which indicates that he was creating pressure even though he wasn’t necessarily getting the sack production. He will also have a new teammate rushing the quarterback who might draw attention this year. The Bucs drafted Rueben Bain out of Miami with the 15th overall pick in this year’s draft. Bain was widely considered to be a top -10 talent and will bring youth and plenty of production to this defense.
The projected starters at interior linebacker will be Alex Anzalone and Christian Rozeboom. Anzalone was a big free-agent addition this offseason. He spent the last 5 years in Detroit becoming a defensive leader for them. Tampa Bay will benefit greatly from his leadership and production. Particularly because they no longer have Levonte David, who retired this offseason. Anzalone had 95 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and 1 interception last year. Next to him is Rozeboom, who was brought in from Carolina. He had 122 tackles, 2 sacks, and 9.5 TFLs last year. This duo is a productive and experienced tandem that will set the middle of this defense.
The starting corners are projected to be Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison, and Jacob Parrish. McCollum had 65 tackles, 6 passes defended, and 1 interception last year. Morrison had 26 tackles and 4 passes defended in just 10 games last year. Parrish had 76 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 8 passes defended. This group will be tasked with improving this year after struggling last year. The secondary also lost Jamel Dean to free agency, so these corners will have the opportunity to earn their starting spots.
The starting safeties will be Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith. Winfield is the centerpiece of this secondary. He had 93 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 8 passes defended in 2025. He is one of the best all-around safeties in football when healthy. Smith had a great 2025 where he had 100 tackles, 13 passes defended, and 5 TFLs. He is an aggressive player and provides a good complement to Winfield’s play style.
Summary
The Bucs had to address some issues that plagued them in 2025. Injuries will happen to everyone, but they needed some additional depth and some new blood on the roster. They also needed new voices in the coaching staff to address some systemic issues. They brought in a new OC and DC that should improve the overall performance of the team. They also added some key players on defense to address the pass rush and run defense. The outlying question will be whether or not they can defend against the pass. That remains to be seen. Overall, the Bucs should be in the driver’s seat in this division. The roster is better than their 8-9 record suggests. They got younger in key positions and should be able to stay healthy this year. They have a tough schedule, but they should be able to overcome it and win more than 8.5 games. I am taking their over.
Bet – Over 8.5 (+115)
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