The AFC South wraps up our win total predictions each year. Typically, it is hard to find nice things to say about all the teams in this division. However, the south has potential to be one of the most competitive divisions in the AFC this year. Jacksonville won the division title last year, which surprised a lot of people. They are poised to make a run again this year. The Colts had their 2025 season derailed by injuries but are back to full health and should be in the mix as well. The Texans have an elite defense that should allow them to win a ton of games and will be in the mix for the Super Bowl. The Titans are going through a transitional year but have a new coaching staff and went on a big shopping spree to surround their young quarterback with talent. It should make for an interesting division as the season kicks off in just under 2 weeks.
Division Winner Odds
Indianapolis Colts – 7.5
- Head Coach – Shane Steichen
- OC – Jim Bob Cooter
- DC – Lou Anarumo
- 2025 Record – 8-9
- Strength of Schedule – 9th Easiest
The 2025 season for the Colts was ultimately a disappointment. They finished the season with 8-9 and were 3rd in the AFC South. This was after starting the season 8-2. In those first 10 games, the Colts looked like they were unbeatable. They had one of the best offenses in the league and their defense was serviceable enough where they were able to stop opponents from outscoring them. Then everything fell to pieces in the second half of the season. Quarterback Daniel Jones was lost for the year after suffering an Achilles tear. They also lost backup quarterback Anthony Richardson in a freak accident. The team turned to a recently unretired Phil Rivers and Riley Leonard. They went on to lose their last 7 games and finished 8-9. The offseason brought no changes to the front office or the coaching staff but the roster saw some turnover in key spots. We’ll see how they bounce back thisyear.
Offense
Daniel Jones appeared to be the leagues latest QB reclamation project. He joined the Colts last offseason after flaming out with the Giants. At one point, he was in the conversation for the MVP. He was thriving in Shane Steichens offense before getting hurt. He had 13 starts for the Colts where he threw for 3101 yards, 19 TDs, and 8 interceptions. He also ran for 164 yards and 5 TDs. His absence was clearly missed as the team suffered without him in the lineup. Jones attacked his rehab this offseason and will be available to start in week 1. Jones should be able to pick up where he left off last year. However, he has shown to be inconsistent in his career and an Achilles injury is not something that people come back from quickly. There might be some rust at the start of the year.
IF there is rust, Jones will be able to rely on one of the best running backs in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor had a resurgence last season and had 1585 yards and 18 TDs rushing. He added 378 yards and 2 TDs receiving. Taylor has the rare ability to break off long runs and be explosive on the ground. Shane Steichen called his number consistently through the year and he will certainly have a large role in this offense moving forward.
The wide receivers for the team will look slightly different this year. Michael Pittman Jr. is now a member of the Steelers after being with the team for 5 years. That elevates Alec Pierce to the WR1. Pierce as emerged as the deep threat on this offense in the pass game. He quickly developed chemistry with Daniel Jones on his way to 47 catches, 1003 yards, and 6 TDs. The concern for Pierce is his health. He had ankle surgery in the offseason, and his status is in question for the start of the year. The next receiver on the depth chart is Josh Downs. Downs had 566 yards and 4 TDs as the primary slot receiver for the Colts. They also added veteran Keenan Allen on August 19th. Last year, he had 81 receptions for 777 yards and 4 TDs. He might be long in the tooth but has proven to be a reliable target over his long career.
Another key player for the Colts’ passing game will be tight end Tyler Warren. Warren had a great rookie season where he had 76 catches for 817 yards and 4 TDs. He was 2nd on the team in yards and led the team in targets. He developed as Daniel Jones’ safety blanket and provides a huge target with his 6’6″ 256lb frame. Warren will benefit greatly from the return of Jones and should be very productive this year.
A strength of this offense will be their offensive line. At left tackle will be Bernhard Raimann, who has developed into a high-quality left tackle. The right tackle will be rookie Jalen Travis. Tackle is a tough position for any rookie so this will be an area of the line to keep an eye on. The guards will be Quentin Nelson at left guard and Matt Goncalves at right guard. At center will be Tanor Bortolini. this group is talented and will be tasked with setting the tone for the run game while focusing on keeping Daniel Jones upright.
Defense
The defense for the Colts will need to improve this year to avoid the issues the team had last year. When the offense faltered, the defense was unable to pick up the slack. They were allowing 24.2 points per game, which was ranked 21st in the league. They were the 2nd worst pass defense in the league, allowing 247 yards per game. They were more effective against the run, allowing 101 yards per game, which was ranked 7th. If they are to improve, the obvious area that needs to be addressed is the secondary.
The defensive front is anchored by tackle DeForrest Buckner. Buckner missed 7 games last year and was part of the injured contingent of Colts that contributed to the late season demise. In those 10 starts, he had 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 72 tackles. Next to him will be Grover Stewart. Stewart started all 17 games last year and had 55 tackles and 0.5 sacks. He exceled in stuffing the run and provides a solid complement to Buckner.
The defensive ends for this line will be Laiatu Latu and Arden Key. Latu is entering his 3rd season, which will be an important season for any future contract negotiations he hopes to have. In 2025, he had 45 total tackles and 8.5 sacks. The Colts are hoping that he elevates his play and his production on the field. Arden Key was brought in during free agency after spending the last 3 seasons with the Titans. He appeared in 12 games last year, recording 22 total tackles and 4 sacks. He had a few solid years as a pass rusher in Tennessee and will be looking to make the most of this opportunity.
The projected starting linebackers for this defense will be CJ Allen, Akeem Davis-Gaither, and Bryce Boettcher. Allen is a rookie that was drafted in the second round of the draft this year out of Georgia. Indy has high hopes for this speedy and athletic linebacker. Davis- Gaither was signed in free agency after leaving the Cardinals. He reunites with DC Lou Anarumo who was his coach in Cincinnati. Last year, he had 117 total tackles for Arizona. The other linebacker will be Bryce Boettcher, who was drafted in the 4th round of this years draft. This group is young and has a tall task in replacing Zaire Franklin and Germaine Pratt, who left the team this offseason.
As mentioned earlier, the secondary needs to improve their production this year. A key part of that turnaround will be Sauce Gardner. Gardner was brought over in a trade with the Jets last season. He only played 4 games before getting hurt and missing the rest of the season. Sauce has previously been viewed as an elite corner in the league. If he can return to form this year, it will prove to be a giant boost to this secondary. On the other side of the field will be Charvarius Ward. He barely played with Sauce last year as he was injured himself. This starting tandem has potential to be very solid but they need to get and stay healthy this year. At nickel will be Justin Walley. Walley missed his entire rookie season with an ACL tear but is expected to play a large role this year.
The starting safeties will be Cam Bynum and AJ Haulcy. Bynum was a great addition to the roster last year. He brought energy and production to the team immediately. in 2025, he recorded 78 tackles, 4 interceptions, 8 passes defended, and 1 sack. Bynum will have a new starting mate with AJ Haulcy taking the starting role opposite of him. Haulcy was the Colts’ 3rd round draft pick this year and will be a player to watch in this secondary.
Summary
The Colts had their 2025 season derailed by injuries. As 2026 looms, they have seemingly gotten healthier. However, depth will remain a concern if they get bit by the injury bug again. However, the starters on this team have enough talent that should they remain healthy, can compete with any other team in the NFL. Considering that they have the 9th easiest schedule and return a ton of key starters, I believe that the Colts are set up to over perform their expected win total. I would be the over on their win totals.
Bet – Over 7.5 (-140)
Jacksonville Jaguars – 8.5
- Head Coach – Liam Coen
- OC – Grant Udinski
- DC – Anthony Campanile
- 2025 Record – 13-4
- Strength of Schedule – 18th Easiest
2025 was the first season of the Laim Coen era in Jacksonville and he delivered an instant turnaround for a team that had been struggling in recent years. They went 13-4 which won the division. The amazing season ended somewhat abruptly in the wild card round of the playoffs when they lost to the Bills, 27-24. Coen managed to bring a brand-new culture to this team that allowed them to be dominant throughout the year. More importantly, he also managed to get the most out of Trevor Lawrence who had been battling the “bust” label. The season was so successful that they are essentially running it back with the same staff and roster. Despite winning the division last year, they are only the 2nd favorites in the odds to win the division. This is the type of fuel that Coen can use to motivate his team.
Offense
Trevor Lawrence had his best season as a pro in 2025. He threw for 4007 yards, 29 TDs, and 12 interceptions. He used his legs effectively and ran for 359 yards and 9 TDs. Lawrence led an offense that was scoring 27.9 points per game, which was ranked 6th in the league. They were the 12th ranked pass attack, averaging 222 yards per game, which can obviously be attributed to Lawrence’s performance. Now entering his 2nd year in the Coen system, he should continue to grow and improve this year.
While the pass game was effective, the run game struggled a bit. They averaged 115 yards er game, which was ranked 20th. This is an area that requires some improvement this year. It might be a tall ask this year after letting their leading rusher, Travis Etienne, walk in free agency. The starting back this year will be Bayshel Tuten, who showed flashes of talent last year. He had 307 yards and 5 TDs. He is poised to get the bulk of the carries this year with the exit of Etienne. Jacksonville also signed Chris Rodriguez in free agency to add some depth to their room. Rodriguez had 500 yards and 6 TDs for the Commanders last year. This should provide a solid 1-2 punch out of the backfiled.
The wide receivers will be the strength of the offense. The trio of Brian Thomas Jr, Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers is as solid of a trio as you will see in the NFL. Add in Travis Hunter, who will continue to play both corner and receiver this year, and the receiving corps has some serious talent. Thomas Jr. is still considered WR1 despite a down year in 2025 compared to his rookie season. He had 48 receptions for 707 yards and 2 TDs. Parker Washington was the leading receiver for the Jags last year with 847 yards on 58 catches. He had 5 TDs and was used in return situations as well. He had 2 punt return TDs in what proved to be a breakout season. Jakobi Meyers was acquired mid-season last year from the Raiders. In 9 games with the Jags, he had 42 receptions for 483 yards and 3 TDs. Meyers added some much-needed experience and stability to the room which made it an easy decision for Jacksonville to bring him back on an extension. Travis Hunter played sparingly at WR last year but will have an impact this year.
The starting tight end will once again be Benton Strange. Strange had himself a breakout year as well in 2025. He had 46 reception, 540 yards, and 3 TDs. He missed some time due to injury but should be back to full health this year. The Jags also added rookie tight end, Nate Boerkircher in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. His blocking ability will give the Jaguars some more flexibility in the run game this year.
The offensive line could be an area of concern this year. Injuries have started to pop up on the line. The left tackle will be filled by Anton Harrison, which will be a new position for him after playing right tackle last year. The right tackle will be Walker Little. At guards will be Emmanuel Pregnon at left guard and Ezra Cleveland at right guard. At center will be Robert Hainsey. There is not much depth behind them, so if any of the starters get hurt, they could be in some trouble.
Defense
The defense was possibly the story of the 2025 Jaguars season. They were ranked 8th in the league, allowing just 19.8 points per game. They were the best run defense in the league, allowing 85 yards per game. Against the pass, they were allowing 218 yards per game, which was 21st in the league. They were 3rd in takeaway differential last year which might be a tough stat to repeat this year.
The defensive line was a main reason why the defense was so good against the run. The starting defensive tackles are Arik Armstead and DaVon Hamilton. Armstead had 28 total tackles, 5.5 sacks, and 6 TFLs last year. He was 2nd on the team in sacks. Hamilton had 38 tackles, 1 sack, and 3 TFLs. This is a solid tackle duo up front.
The edge rushers are going to be Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen. Walker had 3.5 sacks, 38 tackles, and 6 TFLs in 2025. He is a former number 1 overall pick that has flown mostly under the radar in his career. The Jags extended him recently, which would indicate that they still believe him to be their guy. Hines-Allen is the more productive rusher. He had 49 tackles, 8 sacks, and 12 TFLs in 2025. It is a solid pass rush tandem that rounds out a solid defensive line.
The linebackers will be Ventrell Miller at middle linebacker, Foyesade Oluokun at weak side baker, and Jack Kiser at the strong side. Miller will be filling the shoes of Devin Lloyd who left the team in free agency. Miller is entering his 4th season with the team and will be asked to take a much larger role. He had 38 total tackles and 2 forced fumbles in 2025. Oluokun was the leading tackler for the Jags last year. He had 143 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception, and 11 passes defended. He will be a key leader for this group in 2026. Jack Kiser will be entering his 2nd season with the Jags and will also be tasked with a larger role this year.
Cornerback will be an area that draws a lot of attention this year. Travis Hunter is listed at CB1 this year. The exciting two-way player had his rookie season cut short by injury, but he is expected to have a significant impact on the team this year. At CB2 will be Montaric Brown. Brown had 51 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 12 passes defended in 2025. He led the team with PBUs and was given a $33 million deal this offseason. The nickel will be played by Jourdan Lewis. Lewis had 39 tackles and 2 interceptions for the Jags in 2025. This secondary is going to be a very solid group that should improve the overall pass defense for this team.
The safeties will be Eric Murray and Antonio Johnson. Murray started 12 games in 2025 where he recorded 54 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception, and 6 pass break ups. Johnson is coming off of a very good 2025 season. He had 58 tackles, 5 interceptions, and 2 sacks. This tandem rounds out a solid secondary group.
Summary
The Jaguars are coming off of a great 2025 season. They won the division, made the playoffs, and reset expectations high for the future. This offseason, they were not too busy in free agency and did not draft anyone in the 1st round of the draft. So, they are essentially running it back with the same roster with a few exceptions. Looking at the year ahead, I find it hard to believe that they will repeat their turnover success from a year ago. They have a decently tough schedule and are just a few injuries on the offensive line away from pure disaster. While they are set up for the future, I think they overlooked some key areas that needed improving this offseason, and they will come back to bite them. They will probably be competitive, but I think they struggle a lot more this year and finish under 8 wins.
Bet – Under 8.5 (+116)
Tennessee Titans – 6.5
- Head Coach – Robert Saleh
- OC – Brian Daboll
- DC – Gus Bradley
- 2025 Record – 3-14
- Strength of Schedule – 16th Easiest
The Titans were one of the worst teams in the league in 2025. They started the year 0-4 and it did not get much better from there. They fired head coach, Brain Callahan during the season and Mike McCoy took over as the interim. They finished 3-14, 4th in their division, and earned the 4th overall pick in the draft. It should not surprise anyone that wide sweeping changes were made to this organization in the offseason.
They hired Robert Saleh to be their head coach. Saleh was most recently the DC for the 49ers. He had previously been the head coach for the Jets from 2021- 2024. Saleh brought in Brian Daboll to be his OC. Daboll was most recently the head coach for the Giants before getting midseason in 2025. Gus Bradley was brought in to be the DC but Saleh is expected to call plays. In addition to a new coaching staff, the Titans went on a shopping spree in free agency to overhaul their roster. They committed nearly $270 million in the first week of free agency, which was only 2nd to the Raiders. This team has a new look, a new culture, and a young quarterback to lead them. The expectations are rising in Tennessee.
Offense
Cam Ward is entering his 2nd season as the starter for the Titans. He was the 1st overall pick in last year’s draft. Unfortunately, he did not get drafted into the best situation and had to fight through a ton of adversity in his rookie year. His head coach was fired and the team struggled to put a good product out on the field. Now h is paired with Brian Dabol as his OC. Daboll has excelled in the past with developing young quarterbacks. Dabes has the ability to scheme an offense around the talents of his Qb, so I would imagine that this will be a good pairing. In 2025, Ward threw for 3169 yards, 15 TDs, and 7 interceptions. A huge issue for Ward was his protection. He was sacked 55 times in 2025 and could rarely sit in the pocket and throw to his receivers. His ability to make plays showed up throughout the season but the Titans still need to do a better job of protecting him.
The Titans have 2 solid running backs that will lead their run game this year. Tony Pollard is the starter and is backed up by Tyjae Spears. Pollard had 1082 yards and 5 TDs in 2025. This was his 5th season in a row running for over 1000 yards. Spears had 283 yards and 2 TDs in 2025. He was used effectively in th pass game as well, with 45 receptions and 264 yards. These guys will give Daboll some versatility and reliability at the postion.
Cam Ward will have a new crop of receivers to throw the ball to this year. The Titans drafted Carnell Tate out of Ohio State with the 4th overall pick. The first receiver in the draft selected, he is expected to bring some serious playmaking ability to this offense that they desperately need. Coming over with Daboll from the Giants is Wan’Dale Robinson. Robinson had 92 receptions for 1014 yards, and 4 TDs last year with the Giants. He has quietly turned himself into one of the best slot receivers in the league. Bringing his familiarity with Daboll’s system should allow him to hit the ground running. Rounding out the starting receivers is Calvin Ridley. Ridley had a tough 2025 season after dealing with injuries. He is trying to get back to his 2024 production level where he had 1017 yards and 4 TDs.
The projected starting tight end will be Gunnar Helm. He takes over for Chig Okonkwo, who is now in Washington. Helm had 44 receptions for 357 yards and 2 TDs in his rookie season. This year, he will look to expand his role in the offense. He’ll be joined by another one of Daboll’s guys in Daniel Bellinger. Bellinger is more of a blocking tight end and gets used as a full back. However, he is one of the more sure handed receivers and can have an impact in the pass game if needed.
The offensive line was a cause for concern last year and the Titans took steps to address the room in the offseason. Returning at left tackle will be Dan Moore Jr. At right tackle will be JC Latham, who is still looking to establish himself as a top tackle in the league. Left guard PeterSkoronski was granted a 4-year extension that made him the highest paid guard in NFL history. Right guard has a competition between rookie Fernando Carmona and Cordell Vosion, who was brought over from the Bengals. At center will be newly signed Austin Schlottmann who is another former Giants player.
Defense
While the offense had an influx of former Giants players, the defense saw an influx of former Jets players who are familiar with Robert Saleh. Saleh’s specialty is defense and has consistently coached his units to overperform their talent. He now has a second shot at the head coaching spot and will lean on his new defensive roster to become a main reason why they win games.
Starting up front, it all begins with Jeffery Simmns, who is the best player on the defense. He had 67 tackles, 11 sacks, 17 TFLs, and 3 forced fumbles in 2025. He was also used in offense snaps as a fullback and even caught a TD. Simmons will continue to be the star on this defensive front. He is joined by Jordan Elliot who played for Saleh in San Francisco. Elliot had 31 tackles in 2025 and will have the opportunity for more production this year next to Simmons. He will have big shoes to fill since T’Vondre Sweat was traded to the Jets.
The defensive ends are both new to the Titans but not to playing with Saleh. John Franklin-Myers was signed in free agency and reunites with Saleh from their Jets days. JFM can play on the edge or on the interior which makes him a dangerous chess piece on the defensive line. Last year, he had 25 tackles and 7.5 sacks for the Broncos. The Titans got Jermaine Johnson back in the Sweat trade this offseason. He had 3 sacks and 43 tackles with the Jets last year. He had his best season of his career under Saleh in 2023 where he had 55 tackles and 7.5 sacks. He is hoping to return to that level of production this year.
The middle linebacker is currenlty listed as Cody Barton. Barton had 81 total tackles, 1 sack, and 4 TFLs last year. He is a veteran that provides leadership for this room. At weak side linebacker will be Cedric Gray. He had a breakout season in 2025 where he had 164 total tackles, 1 sack, and 7 TFLs. Next to him wil be Anthony Hill Jr who is a rookie out of Texas.
The starting corners are new to the Titans a well this year. they brought in Alontae Taylor from the Saints in the offseason. He had 83 total tackles and 2 interceptions in 2025. He will be joined by Cor’Dale Flott who comes over from the Giants. Flott had a breakout year last season with 38 tackles and 1 interception. He showed that he can line up and effectively take away opponents’ receivers. At nickel will be Marcus Harris, who had 28 tackles in 2025.
The safeties will be Amani Hooker and Kevin Winston Jr. Hooker is the veteran in the room as he enters his 8th season. He had 81 tackles in 2025. Winston only appeared in 10 games as a rookie but has serious upside. He had 34 tackles and 1 sack in 2025. This tandem will need to step up their production this year.
Summary
The Titans are coming off a terrible season in 2025. They were inept on both sides of the ball and had to make some major changes to their coaching staff and roster this offseason. New head coach Robert Saleh has his work cut out for him with this team. He and Brian Daboll brought in a bunch of their former players from the Jets and Giants, who were not exactly great teams. I think this team is going to take some time to get to where they are above .500. This year will be a building year but winning 7 games might be too tall of an ask for them. I am not sold on Cam Ward as a quarterback and his offensive line still has some serious issues. I will take the under for the Titans as they fiht through a very tough division.
Bet – Under 6.5 (-115)
Houston Texans – 9.5
- Head Coach – DeMeco Ryans
- OC – Nick Caley
- DC – Matt Burke
- 2025 Record – 12-5
- Strength of Schedule – 22nd Easiest
The Houston Texans enter 2026 as one of the AFC’s most complete rosters. They went 12–5 in 2025, won a playoff game, and return the NFL’s most important defensive pieces while aggressively rebuilding the offensive line around C.J. Stroud. Despite some struggles, the offense was scoring 23.8 points per game, which was 13th in the league. The defense was the reason that this team had so much success in 2025. They allowed just 17.4 points per game, which was 2nd in the league. The offseason addresses some outstanding issues, but this team is still built to make it back to the playoffs and has a chance for a deep run if their offense can get going this year.
Offense
Much of the success for this offense and team overall will rest on the shoulders of CJ Stroud. Stroud has struggled to recapture the magic of his rookie season and has particularly struggled in the playoffs. While Stroud is accountable, there have been several other factors at play that have stacked the deck against him. His offensive line has been either underperforming or injured. His receivers are not necessarily a deep group, and they have struggled with injuries as well. The run game has been weak, which does not really provide Stroud much support. Despite that, he is set up for a bounce back season this year. In 2025, he threw for 3041 yards, 19 TDs, and 8 interceptions. This year, it will be important for Stroud to perform well if this team wants to make a push for the Super Bowl.
An important addition this offseason was running back David Montgomery. The Texans traded away draft picks to Detroit to acquire Montgomery. He will be Houston’s lead back and can bring some much-needed run support to this offense. In 2025, he had 716 yards and 8 TDs. This production was accomplished while splitting reps with Jahmyr Gibbs. As the lead back for the Texans, he should put up much higher stats. Backing him up will be Woody Marks who had an impressive rookie year in 2025. He had 703 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. He added 208 receiving yards as well. While Monty will get the bulk of the carries, Marks is still going to be an important contributor to this offense.
The receiver group will be an important position group for the Texans’ success this year. if they can stay healthy, it has potential to be a top group in the league. It starts with Nico Collins who has become one of the more consistent receivers in the league when healthy. He has gone over 1000 yards in each of the last 3 seasons despite missing some time to injuries. Last year, he had 71 receptions for 1117 yards and 6 TDs. Joining him just last week will be Kayson Boutte, who was traded from New England. He was brought in to replace the production of Jayden Higgins who suffered an ACL injury in camp this year. Boutte became a top target for Drake Maye in New England and had 33 receptions for 551 yards and 6 TDs. His presence in this offense should provide an explosive playmaker to complement Collins. the 3rd receiver will be Jaylin Noel who had 26 receptions for 292 yards and 2 TDs. Competing with him will also be Tank Dell, who returns after missing all of last year with an injury sustained in 2024.
The starting tight end will be a familiar and reliable target for Stroud. Dalton Schultz is entering his 9th season in the league and his 3rd season as a Texan. He had 82 receptions for 777 yards and 3 TDs last year. He is clearly the favorite target for Stroud as he led the team in receptions and was 2nd in yards. Behind him will be Foster Moreau who will provide an additional target and blocker in this offense.
The offensive line has been an issue for the Texans for a few years now. Some changes were made to this lineup this year. At left tackle will be Aireontae Ersery who is entering his 2nd season and will start right away this year. The right tackle was supposed to be Braden Smith but he suffered an injury in practice this week. In his place will be Trent Brown, who is entering his 12th year in the league. The left guard is projected to be Wyatt Teller who was brought over in free agency from Cleveland. The right guard will be Ed Ingram who is returning as a starter this year. The center will be Keylan Rutledge, who is a rookie out of Georgia Tech that was drafted in the 1st round of this years draft. He is getting thrown right into the fire. The Texans need improvement from this group if they want to improve on offense.
Defense
The defense for the Texans is the cream of the crop in the NFL. They have talent at every level and it is hard to find a weak spot on this side of the ball. Starting with the big guys up front, they have Tommy Togiai and Sheldon Rankins at defensive tackle. Rankins returns after a productive 2025 season where he had 3 sacks, 35 tackles, and 5 TFLs. Togiai had 59 tackles and 1.5 sacks. The Texans also drafted Kayden McDonald in the 2nd round of this years draft out of Ohio State. He is expected to rotate in and eventually take the starting spot.
The edge rushers boast a duo that is perhaps the best in the NFL. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter both earned All-Pro honors last year. Anderson had 54 tackles, 12 sacks, and 20 TFLs. He is a dominant force and is only made more effective by having Hunter on the other side of the line rushing. Hunter had 54 tackles, 15 sacks, and 15 TFLs in 2025. This is a scary tandem that allows the rest of the defense to play free. It is also a type of pass rush that stifles opponents and allows the Houston offense to stay in the game while not necessarily scoring that many points. Houston also added Jadaveon Clowney to this rotation to provide themselves with an embarrassment of riches. He had 8.5 sacks last year for the Cowboys, showing that he can still contribute.
The starting middle linebacker will be Pro-Bowler Azeez Al-Shaair. Al-Shaair had 103 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 1 forced fumble in 2025. He plays a violent brand of football that makes it almost impossible to throw or run against this defense. Next to him will be Henry T’oTo’o who has grown into a very solid linebacker in his own rite. He had 95 tackles and 2.5 sacks last year. He is a very productive linebacker who will continue to complement Al-Shaair’s play style and production.
The Texans also have a pair of Pro Bowlers as their starting corners. Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the best corners in the league. He had 4 interceptions, 36 tackles, and 15 passes defended last year. His efforts earned him 1st team All-Pro honors. Paired with him is Kamari Lassister who had 4 interceptions, 17 passes defended, and 91 tackles, earning him a Pro Bowl nod. These two make for a great young duo. At nickel, the Texans will have Jalen Pitre who had 74 tackles and 4 interceptions last year. For those counting, that is 12 interceptions amongst the starting corners for the Texans last year. An elite secondary to pair with an elite pass rush.
Anchoring the secondary will be safeties Calen Bullock and Reed Blankenship. Bullock had 4 interceptions and 64 tackles in 2025. It was a breakout year for Bullock who is now entering his 3rd season in the league and looking to make a name for himself on a defense full of stars. Next to him will be Reed Blankenship who comes over from Philadelphia. Blankenship had 83 tackles and 1 interception for the Eagles last year.
Summary
The Texans should be considered to be in the running not only for the AFC South title but to win the AFC overall. They have the talent on defense to be an all time great defense, so if their offense can improve, this will be a very dangerous team in 2026. They are currently at +870 odds to win the AFC, which might be worth a sprinkle. They do have a tough schedule but should be able to overcome it. I will be taking the over for the Texans.
Bet – Over 9.5 (-125)
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