AFC East
If you had told me last year, there would be a team from this division that would make it to the Super Bowl and lose, I would have guessed Bills 100 times out of 100. I would not have guessed that the Patriots led by Mike Vrabel would go 14-3 and be one of the final teams standing. That’s why they play the games. After 5 straight years of the Bills winning the division, the Patriots took the division by storm. The Bills continued their trend of heartbreaking losses in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Jets and Dolphins continued their trend of finishing at the bottom of the division. Both teams had a bottoming out and had to use the 2025 offseason to retool their rosters and their coaching staffs. Many questions are going to be asked ahead of the 2026 season. Can the Bills get to the Super Bowl? Was the Super Bowl run a fluke for the Patriots? What is going on with Miami? How long will Aaron Glenn last as the Jets head coach? All will be answered shortly. Let’s get into these teams.
AFC East Winner Odds
Buffalo Bills – 10.5
- Head Coach – Joe Brady
- OC – Pete Carmichael
- DC – Jim Leonhard
- 2025 Record – 12-5
- Strength of Schedule – 14th easiest
The 2025 season proved to be the final one of the Sean McDermott era in Buffalo. It was perhaps one of the more surprising coaching moves made in the offseason. McDermott was in Buffalo for 9 years and had only 1 losing season. His record in the regular season was 98-50. He has a postseason record of 16-8. However, none of those wins were Super Bowls. The final straw was the heartbreak that they endured this year. They went 12-5 in the regular season and all signs pointed to them being able to get over the hump this year. The Chiefs, who have knocked the Bills out of the playoffs several times, were not in the tournament. The path was there. They won a wild card game against the Jaguars 27-24. Then, they were in the driver’s seat against the Broncos the following week. A couple of questionable calls by the ref ensued and the Bills found themselves on the wrong end of a 33-30 loss.
The Bills decided to shake things up after another heartbreak in the playoffs. They parted ways with Sean McDermott and promoted OC Joe Brady to the top spot. They are hoping that Brady can get the Bills over the hump and finally break their Super Bowl drought. Brady has hired a new staff consisting of OC Pete Carmichael and DC Jim Leonhard.
Offense
Joe Brady will continue to grow his relationship with quarterback Josh Allen. Part of the reason that Brady was given the job was probably to maintain continuity for Allen and the rest of this offense. Allen and Brady have been working together since 2023, when Brady took the OC job. While Allen had been performing at a high level prior to Brady taking the job, the new offensive scheme helped elevate Allen’s game. He won the MVP in 2024 and was once again in the conversation last year.
Josh Allen is currently in the discussion of “Best QB in the league”. He has been playing at a high level for years and last year was no different. He threw for 3668 yards, 25 TDs, and 10 interceptions. He also ran for 579 yards and 15 TDs. His dual threat ability and production certainly makes him the most dangerous QB in the league. The only knock on Allen, and the Bills as a whole, is the inability to get to the Super Bowl.
Perhaps it’s the shadow cast by Josh Allen but James Cook doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. All he did last year was produce. He was the league’s leading rusher with 1621 yards. He scored 12 TDs on the ground and added 291 yards and 2 TDs receiving. He is just 1 year removed from leading the league in rush TDs as well. He is clearly a huge part of Joe Brady’s offense and will continue to be as this season begins. The Bills also have Ray Davis and Ty Johnson who are effective in their own respective roles. Johnson is more of the receiving threat, totaling 263 yards and 2 TDs last year. Davis ran for 275 yards last year. This group, in addition to Josh Allen’s running ability, were the top rushing attack in the league last year. They show no signs of slowing down this year.
The receiver room was missing a true WR1 last year. Their leading receiver was Khalil Shakir, who recorded 72 receptions for 719 yards and 4 TDs. He is an effective receiver and a great safety blanket for Josh Allen. However, his production has never surpassed the 1000-yard mark. The next 2 leading receivers were their tight ends. Keon Coleman was the 3rd leading receiver with 404 yards and Joshua Plamer followed hum with 303 yards. They needed some help in this department. So, they went out and traded a 2026 2nd round pick to Chicago for DJ Moore and a2026 5th round pick.
DJ Moore brings an explosiveness to this receiving corps that has been missing. Moore is entering his 9th NFL season with his 3rd NFL team. He spent 5 years with Carolina and the last 3 with Chicago. He comes in with 8213 career yards and 41 TDs. Last year was his worst year from a production standpoint where he had 682 yards and 6 TDs. However, it was a situation where there were a lot of up-and-coming receivers that were given a lot of targets. Also, the Bears have never had a 4000-yard quarterback, so take that into consideration. Moore is still under 30 years old, so he should still have plenty left in the tank. It will be exciting to see how he fits into the offense.
I mentioned the starting tight ends above. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox were the 2nd and 3rd leading receivers on this team, respectfully. Kincaid had 571 yards and 5 TDs in just 12 games. His health caused him to miss several games but is a huge part of the offense when fully healthy. Dawson Knox appeared in all 17 games and recorded 417 yards and 4 TDs. They create a good 1-2 punch at the tight end position that allows them to be used in the run game and pass game.
The offensive line is returning 5 players that were on the team last year. The tackles are going to be Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. Dawkins is considered to be one of the best left tackles in the game and protects Allen’s blindside. On the interior, they will start Alec Anderson at left guard and O’Cyrus Torrence at right guard. A big win in the offseason was being able to resign center Connor McGovern. McGovern was one of the top centers on the market and the Bills were very happy to get him back.
Defense
The defense will have a new play caller with the arrival of Jim Leonhard. Leonhard was a former NFL safety and most recently spent time as the Broncos defensive pass game coordinator and assistant head coach. He takes over a defense that was the best in the league against the pass but was one of the worst against the run last year. They will need to close that gap if this team wants to be in the final game of the year.
Up front, the defensive tackle room gets their star back in Ed Oliver. Oliver played in only 3 regular season games last year and 1 postseason game. As evident by the 28 ranked run defense, his absence was felt. Oliver is a 7-year veteran who has consistently contributed up front. He is joined by T.J Sanders and Deone Walker. Both are 2nd year players that made small contributions last year but need to improve their production in 2026.
On the edge, the starters are projected to be Greg Rousseau and Bradley Chubb. Rousseau led the team last year in sacks with 7. He also had 46 total tackles. He has been consistent in his production throughout his 5-year career but has yet to reach that next level. Typically, he is lined up alongside a player who is able to make a larger impact in the box score. The past 2 years it was Von Miller and Joey Bosa. This year, it will be Bradley Chubb. Chubbis entering his 10th NFL season. Chubb is a former 1st round pick of the Denver Broncos. He has never quite lived up to the expectations of a high draft pick but is a very productive player. He spent 4.5 seasons in Denver before getting traded to Miami. After 4 years there, he has found a new home with a new opportunity.
The starters for the interior linebackers are projected to be Dorian Williams and Terrel Bernard. Both were on the team last year. Williams starter 9 games and recorded 63 total tackles. Bernard started 11 games and recorded 65 total tackles. They spent time rotating in for an injured Matt Milano. Milano is no longer with the team, so they have the opportunity to prove themselves this year. It should be noted that Williams is currently on the injury report with a questionable status. However, the most recent update per Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com reports that he is participating in team drills.
The secondary helped contribute to the top pass defense in the NFL during the 2025 season. They return one of their starting corners. They lost Taron Johnson to free agency. That means that Christian Benford will be playing a much bigger role this year as the true CB1.He had 2 interceptions and 43 total tackles last year. Maxwell Hairston will be playing an elevated role as well. He recorded 2 interceptions and 18 total tackles last year. It is a young duo but they have shown the ability for big plays.
The safeties will look a little different this year as well. Cole Bishop, who was fighting for a starting role last camp, led the team in tackles last year. He is projected to be the starter at SS. At FS, the Bills have moved Damar Hamlin down the depth chart with the signing of Geno Stone. Stone is a 6-year veteran who recently played 2 seasons in Cincinnati. Prior to that, he played 4 seasons in Baltimore. He should provide a veteran boost to this secondary that is seemingly pretty young. The Bills also added C.J Gardner-Johnson to add some toughness to this secondary. He is typically a safety but is listed as the nickel on the depth chart. He is entering his 9th year in the NFL and is on his 6th NFL team. There were reports that he is working through a calf strain in camp but should be in good shape for the start of the season.
Summary
The Bills are always going to have a shot to win the Super Bowl as long as they have Josh Allen. Despite not winning the division last year and having a brand-new head coach, they are still favored to win the East. They are tied with the Ravens for 2nd favorites to win the Super Bowl this year. They are +1000 on DraftKings. While I don’t see them winning a Super Bowl, I do think that they can return to the top of the AFC East. The coaching change could prove to be the change they needed but I do not buy it. I also do not think that the team added enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to fill the gaps from last year. I believe that the absence of Sean McDermott will be felt the most on the defensive side of the ball. As a result, I think that the Bills might struggle more than anticpated, especially against a tougher schedule. I see them going 10-7
Bet – Under 10.5 (+100)
Miami Dolphins – 4.5
- Head Coach – Jeff Hafley
- OC – Bobby Slowik
- DC – Sean Duggan
- 2025 Record – 7-10
- Strength of Schedule – 31st easiest
I predicted a disaster of a season for the 2025 Dolphins. 7-10 does not constitute a disaster. However, I may not have been wrong, I might just have been early. The Dolphins appeared to be in full tank mode last year. Anything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Key injuries to players like Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa spelled disaster for the once high-flying offense. The defense was allowing 24.9 points per game, which was ranked 24th in the NFL. At the end of the year, Coach Mike McDaniel’s team did not show much fight and he was fired.
They brought in Jeff Hafley to be their head coach. Hafley was the DC of the Packers and turned that unit into one of the best performing defenses in the league. Prior to that job, Hefley was the head coach of Boston College. Hafley is also working with first time general manager, Jon-Eric Sullivan. They have assembled a staff consisting of Bobby Slowik as OC and Sean Duggan as DC. Slowik was the OC for 2 years in Houston when CJ Stroud had his best year in the NFL. He was the Sr. pass game coordinator for the Phins last year. Duggan worked with Hafley in Green Bay as his linebackers coach. He also worked with Hafley at Boston College. This new front office and coaching staff handpicked their new team and built the foundation for what they are hoping to accomplish.
Offense
One of the key players that was brought in was quarterback Malik Willi. Willis is getting his first real chance to be the undisputed starting quarterback for a franchise. He previously started 3 games for the Tennessee Titans in 2022. He did not impress the coaches enough to be given the keys to the team. He appeared in 3 games for them in 2023 and then was traded to the Packers in 2024. When Jordan Love was injured, Willis started 2 games and won both of them. Last year, he started 1 game for the Packers and lost his 1 start. He is more of a running quarterback so he will be able to make some plays with his legs. However, it does seem (at this point) like this is a stretch for the Dolphins. There is not much of a body of work for Willis that proves that he will be a franchise quarterback. Should he get hurt or underperform, Quinn Ewers is on the roster as a backup. Ewers saw some action as the starter last year. He started 3 games and went 1-2. He threw for 622 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 interceptions. Overall, the Miami QB room does not inspire too much confidence.
The focal point of this offense will be speedy running back De’Von Achane. Achane is an exciting player that has shown to be dangerous in the pass game in addition to the run game. He rushed for 1350 yards and 8 TDs in 2025. He added 488 yards and 4 TDs through the air. His blazing speed makes him a matchup nightmare. Given the lack of weapons this team has, I would be worried about his health. His increased workload may result in more opportunities to take big hits. On the flip side, since Malik Willis is going to be a part of this running game, the RPO might work in Achane’s favor and open up more running lanes. His backups will be Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon. Both backs were on the team last year and have been produced at a level that is expected of back ups.
The receivers room might be one of the more underwhelming groups in the NFL. The projected starters are Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and Tutu Atwell. They have a combined 11 years of experience and only 3168 receiving yards between the 3 starters. Washington is an exciting player but only has 2 years in the league and had a career high of 317 yards last year. Jalen Tolbert signed with the team this offseason after spending 4 years in Dallas. He had a breakout season in 2024 when he recorded 610 yards. Tutu Atwell is the veteran of this group as he is entering his 6th year in the league. He spent the first 5 years as a member of the Rams. He had some solid years as a WR3/WR4. Now, he has the opportunity to have a large impact on this team.
Starting at tight end will be Greg Dulcich. Dulcich has bounced around the league a bit over the last few year. He started his career in Denver where he appeared to be a productive player. He recorded a career high 411 yards as a rookie. Since then, he has struggled for playing time, spending a few more seasons in Denver, a cup of coffee with the Giants, and landed in Miami last year. He appeared in 10 games for the Dolphins and recorded 335 receiving yards and 1 TD. Much like the rest of this offense, his previous production does not inspire much confidence headed into this year. Behind him on the depth chart is Will Kacmarek who is a rookie out of Ohio State. He was drafted in the 3rd round and has a chance to be a productive player on this offense.
The offensive line will be a work in progress. The starting tackles are projected to be Patrick Paul and Austin Jackson. Paul will be appearing in his second season. Jackson has moved all over the offensive line throughout his career. On the interior, they will have rookie Kadyn Proctor start at left guard. Proctor was a 1st round draft pick out of the University of Miami and is seen as a future cornerstone of this line. The right guard is slotted to be Jonah Savaiinaea who is entering his 2nd year as a starter. At center, Aaron Brewer will be entering his second year as a starter as well. This is a young group that will be responsible for setting up the run for this run-heavy offense.
Defense
The defense is currently listed as a 4-3 base. Jeff Hafley will be calling defensive plays, which provides some form of confidence. He obviously did a great job of play calling with the Packers, which is one of the reasons that he received the top job in Miami. There is some work to be done with this defense. Last year, they ranked 24th in points allowed, were 18th against the pass and were 26th against the run. We’ll see if his scheme and play calling can turn this into a more respectable unit.
The defensive front will have 2 interior defensive tackles returning. Kenneth Grant and Zach Sieler return for another year. Sieler had 47 total tackles and 5.5 sacks last year. Grant had 33 total tackles and 2 sacks. Behind them on the depth chart is Jordan Phillips who had 34 tackles. Given the teams inability to stop the run last year, this group will need to make some improvements if they want to stop opposing teams .
Off the edge will be defensive ends Chop Robinson and Josh Uche. Robinson started 3 games last year but appeared in 15. He recorded 4 sacks and 21 combined tackles. He is no longer competing with Bradley Chubb for snaps, so this might be his opportunity to have his best year. Josh Uche signed with the team this offseason. He has been in the league for 6 years and is now on his 4th team. He started his career in New England for 4.5 seasons. He was then traded to Kansas City. Last year, he was a member of the Eagles where he played a supporting role and only recorded 1 sack. He gets the chance to start again for this team and is still chasing the success he had in 2022 when he recorded 11.5 sacks.
If you are looking for some star power on this defense, look no further than linebacker Jordyn Brooks. Brooks led the league in tackles last year with 183 total tackles. He added 13 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. For his efforts, he was voted 1st Team All-Pro. He is the leader of this defense and will continue his impressive career as he begins year number 7.
Tyrel Dodson, and Willie Gay Jr. will play alongside Brooks. Dodson was second on the team in tackles with 129 total tackles. He also recorded 5 sacks. He plays the middle linebacker position and will be the center of this defense. Gay is entering his 2nd year as part of the Dolphins and will look to continue to grow his role and production.
The secondary may be yet another area of concern for the Dolphins. Starting corner, Storm Duck, is projected to be out of the lineup until midseason. In his place will be either Marco Wilson or JuJu Brents. On the other side of the field will be rookie Chris Johnson. Johnson was a 1st round pick out of San Diego St. There is obviously some optimism for him, but corner is always tough in terms of translating their game from college to NFL. Marco Wilson is a 7-year vet who has not had an interception since 2022. JuJu Brents is entering his 4th year and might be thrust into a larger role if Duck is out for an extended period of time.
In the safety room, the Dolphins once again traded away Minkah Fitzpatrick, which leaves quite the void. In his place, they have Zayne Anderson who despite being in the league for 5 years, has only made 2 starts. The other safety will be Dante Trader Jr. He was on the team last year and made 3 starts. The inexperience on this defense is glaring and should be a concern. With that said, this might be a team I bet against in passing props all year. Something to keep an eye on.
Summary
Not all change is good change. This team has a long hill to climb. There is not a ton of experience on this team at key positions, including head coach. The proposed franchise QB has only started a handful of games. The receivers do not have much experience as a room. The defense has 1 good player in Jordyn Brooks and not much else going for them. Add in the fact that they have the 2nd hardest schedule, it is shaping up for a rough year in Miami.
Bet – Under 4.5 (-146)
New York Jets – 5.5
- Head Coach – Aaron Glenn
- OC – Frank Reich
- DC – Brian Duker
- 2025 Record – 3-14
- Strength of Schedule – 4th easiest
The Jets managed to out-Jets themselves in 2025. Aaron Glenn was brought in to instill a new culture and turn the franchise around. They had signed Justin Fields to be their starting QB and committed to a run-heavy offense and a stingy defense. To their credit, the run game was solid. They were averaging 123.3 yards per game, which was 10th in the league. It was very much to the detriment of the pass game and points. They were averaging 140.3 pass yards per game, which was 32nd. They averaged 17.6 points per game, which was 29th. On defense, they allowed 29.6 points per game, which was ranked 31st. They failed to record an interception all year. They struggled early and often and ended the year 3-14.
After the season, Aaron Glenn fired both coordinators and hired Frank Reich as his OC and Brian Duker as his DC. Reich has been out of the NFL since being fired as the head coach of the Panthers in 2023. The last time he was an OC was in 2017 for Philadelphia’s Super Bowl run. Brian Duker has been working his way through the ranks in the NFL since 2015. he was most recently the defensive pass game coordinator for the Dolphins in 2025. The Dolphins had the wort pass defense in the league last year, so it seems like an interesting hire. The overall feeling is that if this year does not go well, Aaron Glenn will be on the chopping block.
Offense
The Justin Fields experiment was short lived. Fields was cut and is now a backup in Kansas City. The Jets were not in a position to draft the top QB in the draft so they needed to turn to free agency and bring in a veteran. They brought in a familiar face in Geno Smith. Smith was originally drafted by the Jets in 2013. Needless to say, it did not work out for him. He then went on to take a backup role for the next 6 season before reemerging as the starter in Seattle for the 2022 season. He then followed Pete Carrol to Las Vegas last year where he had a rough season. He threw for 3025 yards, 19 TDs, and 17 interceptions. He was under siege behind a terrible offensive line and was sacked 55 times. The Raiders fired Carrol and Geno needed to find a new home. So, the Jets brought him back to his old home. It will be interesting to see if Geno can get back to is 2022 self and elevate this Jets offense.
Staying true to the original identity that Aaron Glenn had in mind for this team, the Jets signed running back Breece Hall to a 3-year, $45.75 million contract extension. Hall has proven to be productive and at times, an explosive player. He is used in the run and pass game in order to get him into open space. Last year, he ran for 1065 yards and 4 TDs while also recording 36 receptions for 350 yards and 1 TD. Given his contract and the way that this offense has been structured, Hall will be a key piece to this offense. He will be backed up by Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis.
Geno Smith will have an exciting group of weapons in the wide receiver’s room. Leading the charge is 5th year receiver, Garret Wilson. Wilson sis a former 1st round draft pick and was the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year. He has a penchant for making ridiculous catches and is generally quarterback proof. He put up 3 straight 1000+ yard seasons to begin his career. Last year, he suffered a knee sprain causing him to miss 10 games. He is a prime canidate for comeback player of the year with a clean bill of health and a new quarterback.
He will have some new running mates out there with him as well. The Jets traded for AD Mitchell last year. While with the Colts, Mitchell struggled to stay into the starting lineup. Once he got a change of scenery, he started producing. In 8 games with the Jets, he had 24 catches for 301 yards and 2 TDs. He should have an expanded role this year and should continue to grow as a player. The Jet also drafted Omar Cooper Jr with the 30th overall pick in this years draft. Cooper just won the National Championship with Indiana and can make an immediate impact in New York. Some other receivers of note would be Tim Patrick, who will begin the year on PUP, and Isaiah Williams, who was on the team last year.
There are some nice young weapons in the tight ends room as well. They already had Mason Taylor on the roster. Taylor was one of the bright spots last year as he started to make plays. He ended the year with 44 receptions and 369 yards and 1 TD. The Jets also used one of their many draft picks to pick Kenyon “The Freak” Sadiq out of Oregon. Sadiq earned his nickname by being a physical specimen and showing out at the NFL Scouting Combine. He set a record in the 40-yard dash for tight ends with a 4.39. He was also very productive at Oregon. There is some slight concern over a hernia injury, but reports are that he will be fine for Week 1.
As made evident in his year with the Raiders, Geno Smith requires a good offensive line to succeed. That is not unique to Smith but seeing him play behind a terrible line was rough to see. Luckily, the Jets have made significant investments in the offensive line. It is just a matter of the group executing and living up to expectations. The starting tackles are projected to be Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou. Both players were 1st round draft picks in previous drafts. On the interior, they will have Dylan Parham and Joe Tippman at the guards. Parham comes over from the Raiders while Tippmann has been with the team since 2023. At center will be Josh Myers. Myers was signed last year after spending 4 seasons with the Packers.
Defense
The investment in the trenches was reflected on the defensive side as well. The Jets may have traded away Quinnen Williams last year but they still have big big bodied men up front. They still have Harrison Phillips, who is entering his 2nd year with the Jets and his 9th year in the league. He recorded 60 total tackles last year. They also traded away Jermaine Johnson in exchange or T’Vondre Sweat. Sweat is a 360 lbs DT who is only entering his 3rd year. These two DT’s are going to set the tone up front for this defense.
The 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft was used on edge rusher David Bailey out of Texas Tech. Hopes and expectations are incredibly high for Bailey as he enters the league. He joins Will McDonald IV, who is another 1st round draft pick, on this line. McDonald has been a solid player for his first 3 seasons. He recorded 10.5 sacks 2 years ago and 8 sacks last year. The numbers do not blow you away but the duo of him and Bailey should cause plenty of trouble.
The linebackers for the Jets have potential to be a very solid group. They already had Jamien Sherwood, who is listed as their middle linebacker. He has recorded back-to-back seasons with 150+ tackles. He has emerged as the leader of this defense over the last few years. They also added a veteran presence by signing Demario Davis this offseason. Davis was originally drafted by the Jets in 2012 as a 3rd round pick. He spent 1 year in Cleveland and the last 8 in New Orleans. It was as a member of the Saints that he really made a name for himself in the league. He still has some gas left in the tank, as shown by his career high 143 tackles last year. Rounding out the starters at linebacker is Kiko
Mauigoa. Mauigoa is entering his 2nd year in the league as a member of the Jets.
The starting corners are projected to be Brandon Stephens, Nahshon Wright, and D’Angelo Ponds. Stephens is entering his 6th year and 2nd year as a member of the Jets. He recorded 73 tackles last year. Nahshon Wright was signed in the offseason after having a breakout year for Chicago. He started 16 games for the first time in his career and made the most of his opportunity. He recorded80 tackles and 5 interceptions, returning 1 for a TD. The Jets, who didn’t record a single interception last year, are hoping that Wright will continue to have a nose for the ball. D’Angelo Ponds is a rookie that was drafted in the 2nd round of this years draft. He played college ball at JMU and Indiana.
The safety room acquired a Bonafide superstar this offseason. The Jets traded with the Dolphins to acquire Minkah Fitzpatrick. Minkah is a 5-time Pro Bowler and a 3-time 1st All-pro. Fitzpatrick has rare athletic ability and a high football IQ. He is going to be a great addition to this Jets defense. He will be joined by Andre Cisco who is returning from injury last year.
Summary
The Jets have often been a laughingstock. They often set themselves up for failure by setting expectations too high and failing spectacularly. This year, I think the expectations are wildly low. The jury is still out on Aaron Glenn as a head coach. He hired coordinators that might have people around the league scratching their heads at. However, the personnel moves that were made on the actual roster does point to an improved football team. The offense got a somewhat reliable quarterback in Geno Smith and surrounded him with weapons and an offensive line. The defense added young studs and veteran stars to their roster. I can’t believe that I am saying this but I am pretty bullish (within reason) on this Jets team. I think they take advantage of a soft schedule and easily win over 5.5 games.
Bet – Over 5.5 (-120)
New England Patriots – 10.5
- Head Coach – Mike Vrabel
- OC – Josh McDaniels
- DC – Zak Kuhr
- 2025 Record – 14-3
- Strength of Schedule – 10th easiest
The 2025 season for the Patriots was like turning back the clock. Mike Vrabel is a callback straight to the Belichick era. He brought in his own version of it and it paid off immensely. A year removed from going 4-13 and firing their head coach, the Patriots once again found themselves in the Super Bowl. They have a young talented quarterback who finished 2nd the MVP voting. They have a young nucleus of players on both sides of the ball that points to a return to the glory days for this franchise. Sure, there was some off the field problems once the season ended. That was covered ad nauseum on the internet. There is aways a chance that Mike Vrabels affair with Dianna Russini never goes away and it becomes a huge distraction, and it has an impact on Vrabel’s ability to win football games. I’m not buying it.
This team was 2nd in the league in points scored per game and 4th in points allowed per game. They certainly did benefit from having the 2nd easiest expected schedule, but they still had to go out and win those games. They also beat some solid teams in the playoffs. They retooled their roster in the offseason and addressed some areas of need. People are already praying for their downfall as the Brady/Belichick days are still fresh in some of our minds. They do have a much more difficult schedule this year, so it will be a true test as they try to repeat as AFC East Champs.
Offense
Drake Maye had a hell of a 2nd year. Vrabel brought Josh McDaniels in to run the offense, and McDaniels had an immediate impact on the young quarterback out of UNC. Drake Maye threw for 4394 yards, 31 TDs, and 8 interceptions. He had a 72% completion rate and a 77.1 QBR, which was highest in the NFL. He showed off his mobility as well, running for 450 yards and 4 TDs. While the regular season was his coming out party, the postseason was rough for Drake. The offensive line was not able to hold up against playoff caliber defensive lines and he was constantly under pressure. Since he was trying to avoid the rush, his effectiveness faltered and team may have a blueprint for him moving forward.
Maye has two running backs to lean on whenever they want to run the ball. Rhamondre Stevenson and TeVeyon Henderson split carries last year with great success. Stevenson was the starter and initially received the bulk of the carries. He missed a few games with injury but returned to play a big role in the playoffs. In the regular season, he had 130 carries for 603 yards and 7 TDs. The 5-year vet was then given the Lion’s share of the carries in the playoffs where he added 217 yards in 4 games. Henderson is entering his 2nd year in the league. He was the team’s leading rusher last year with 180 carries, 911 yards, and 9 TDs. He brings an explosiveness to this run game that Stevenson does not quite have. However, he became less effective in the playoffs for some reason and remains the backup moving forward.
The Patriots were missing a true WR1 in 2025. They had Stefon Diggs perform admirably and then a committee of capable receivers. This offseason, they made several moves to bolster their receiving corps. The Patriots sent a 2028 1st round pick and a 2027 5th round pick to the Eagles in exchange for AJ Brown. Brown reunites with Mike Vrabel who was his coach in Tennessee. Brown is entering his 8th year in the league and has been one of the more consistent receivers in the league during his career. He has gone over the 1000-yard mark in 7/8 of the seasons that he has played. Despite a diminished role last year, he managed 78 receptions, 1003 yards, and 7 TDs. He provides a weapon that Drake Maye has not had in his time with the Patriots.
The Patriots also made a significant free agent signing for the receiving corps. They signed Romeo Doubs to be their WR2. Doubs spent the first 4 years of his career with Green Bay. He is averaging 606 yards per season and has been increasing his production each year. In 2025, he had 55 receptions for 724 yards and 6 TDs. He is positioned to play a large role in the offense this year. Him and Brown will be a dangerous duo. They will also be joined by receivers that were already making plays for the Patriots. Kayshon Boutte emerged as a big play receiver over the last 2 years. He had 33 receptions for 551 yards and 6 TDs in 2025. Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams round out this group. They are solid receiving options in their own rites. This should be a fun group to watch.
Another useful piece of this offense will once again be Hunter Henry. Henry has become a security blanket for Drake Maye over the last 2 seasons. The 9-year vet recorded a career high 768 yards last year. He also caught 7 TDs. Henry provides a reliable target in the middle of the field for this passing game.
The offensive line was heavily scrutinized towards the end of the 2025 season. Left tackle Will Campbell struggled against the premier pass rushers that he faced in the playoffs. The entire offense had to shift to compensate. Entering his 2nd year, the Patriots are hoping that he makes the necessary improvements that are expected of a 1st round pick. At right tackle will once again be veteran Morgan Moses. They made a significant signing at left guard to help support the left side of the line. They signed Alijah Vera-Tucker to support Campbell. The right guard will once again be Mike Onwenu. At center, Jared Wilson will enter his 2nd year in the league. He is making the switch from guard to center, so there may be some growing pains here.
Defense
The defense in 2025 was one of the top units in the league. They were allowing 18.8 points per game, which was 4th in the NFL. Against the run, they were allowing 101.7 yards/game which was ranked 6th and against the pass, they were allowing 193.5 yards per game, which was ranked 9th. They return a majority of their starters this year while officially having a new play caller with Zak Kuhr being promoted .
The defensive tackles will be made up of Christian Barmore, Cory Durdenm and Milton Williams. Durden will play in the middle as the nose tackle. Last year, he had 30 total tackles. Barmore is entering his 6th year with the team. Last year he had 29 tackles and 2 sacks. Williams was a big addition to this team last year. He contributed 15 total tackles and 3.5 sacks.
The outside linebackers and min edge rushers will be Harold Landry and Dre’Mont Jones. Landry had 49 tackles and 8.5 sacks last year. This year, he is dealing with an injury that might force him to miss some early games. In his place will be either Gabe Jacas or Bradyn Swinson. Dre’Mont Jones comes over to New England from the Ravens. He had 7 sacks last year after splitting time between the Titans and Ravens. If these edge rushers can get and stay healthy, they will be disruptive.
The linebackers will be Christian Elliss and Robert Spillane. Elliss recorded 94 total tackles last year. He was a key part of the defense that led this team to a Super Bowl appearance. Spillane had 97 total tackles, 1 sack, and 2 interceptions. Spillane is a hard-hitting linebacker that pairs very well with the identity of this team and with Elliss.
The secondary is anchored by cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is entering his 4th season in the league. Last year, he was voted to his first Pro Bowl. He only allowed a 53.6% completion rate against opponents. He has truly become a lock down corner and is next in line to earn a big payday. Playing alongside him will once again be Carlton Davis who only allowed 58.1% completion rate last year. This tandem makes it very difficult for any team to throw against this defense. In the nickel position, they have Marcus Jones who was 2nd team All-Pro last year. Hard to see where the weakness is in this secondary.
The safety room will consist of Crag Woodson and Kevin Byard. Woodson is entering his 2nd season with the team. He contributed 79 total tackles last year. Byard is a 10-year veteran who was signed in the offseason after spending the last 2 seasons in Chicago. Byard is a very productive safety who had 7 interceptions last year.
Summary
The Patriots had a miracle run in 2025. They elevated their level of play while taking advantage of a soft schedule in the regular season. They return several of their starters and made several improvements in positions like wide receiver and safety. All signs from a roster standpoint would indicate a repeat performance this year. However, with some of the off-field distractions, a tougher schedule, and the dreaded Super Bowl loser hangover, I think the Patriots are in for a rougher 2026 than people are expecting. I think they will still be in the mix for the AFC East title but their schedule truly is brutal to start the year. If they don’t get off to a hot start, they will not be able to win more than 10 games.
Bet – Under 10.5 (-140)
*Odds taken from DraftKings
*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis
Black Dog Bets 
Leave a comment