NFL Week 1: Best Bets for Sunday

We made it.

The first NFL Sunday is finally here. The start of the 2026 season has been an odd one for sure. We had a Wednesday game to start the year and then a Thursday game in Australia. Both games were not necessarily exciting, but it is good to have football all the way back. We had a push on our Wednesday Best Bet and fell short on Thursday. So, we are at 0-1-1 for the year. It’s time to put up our first win for the year. I have gone through the slate today and picked 4 Best Bets for the day and provided some background on each. I have also included Jamie’s pick of the week. Let’s make some money!

First things first, the Best Bets:

Best Bets

David Montgomery Rush Yards over 55.5
Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Yards over 86.5
Saquon Barkley Rush Yards over 76.5
Cam Skattebo Rush Yards over 49.5

Best Bet Background- David Montgomery Rush Yards over 55.5

The Texans have been searching for a lead running back for a few years now. They have one in David Montgomery, who was acquired in the offseason. Monty has a physical running style that is going to fit the way that Houston intends to play. They have one of the best defenses in the league and will need to lean on their run game to control the pace of play on both sides of the ball. They will have their first test against the Buffalo Bills. The Texans have seemingly had the Bills’ number, beating them in the last 4 of 5 matchups. The Bills had the 28th ranked run defense in 2025 and did make many improvements to the interior defensive line or the linebacker position. That makes this a great matchup for the Texans and David Montgomery. Even as a backup, Monty averaged 48.1 yards per game. Now as the lead back, he has the opportunity to make a great first impression on his new team.

Best Bet Background – Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Yards over 86.5

The Bengals are hosting the Buccaneers for their first game of the season. The Bengals have been notoriously slow starters over the past couple of seasons, but they have a matchup that could result in a shootout. That means that player receiving props are going to be the move. We are going with Joe Burrow’s favorite target, Ja’Marr Chase, who is poised to have a good matchup. The Bucs’ defense was ranked 27th against the pass in 2025. They were allowing 238 yards per game through the air. The Bengals are built to throw the ball with receivers like Chase and Tee Higgins. Chase has been in the conversation as one of the best receivers in the NFL for years. With three different QB’s last year, he still managed to average 88 yards per game. Now that Burrow is fully back, they should pick up right where they left off.

Best Bet Background – Saquon Barkley Rush Yards over 76.5

Death. Taxes. Saquon Barkley running wild against Washington. I am hoping that this pick is one that we shouldn’t have to sweat out. Saquon has gone over this mark in the last 5 games that he played against Washington. The previous three matchups, as a member of the Eagles, he has run for 146, 150, and 136 yards. He will be lining up behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the league which will only help to open up running lanes. His opponents had the 3rd worst run defense in the league last season. They were allowing 141 rush yards per game. They made some moves on the defense to address this issue in the offseason but it will be difficult for them to take that big of a leap to be able to shut down Saquon. Barkley should have big day and will only need to break a few long runs to get this total.

Best Bet Background – Cam Skattebo Rush Yards over 49.5

The day will end with a primetime game between the Cowboys and Giants in the Meadowlands. It is a matchup that has not gone the Giants’ way in quite some time. They have won just 1 of the last 5 games against the Cowboys. However, there have been a ton of changes made to the Giants organization. They have John Harbaugh as their head coach, which brings a whole new culture to the building. Part of that culture is building a physical team that runs the ball. That is why Skattebo is the perfect pick for this Best Bet. Skattebo is a very physical back and will now be the centerpiece of a team that is built to run. He will have an improved offensive line and a new lead blocker with Pat Ricard as his full back. They are lining up against a Cowboys defense that was worst in the league against the run. They added several pieces to their defense and have a new play caller which might be cause for concern. However, it does not take away the fact that the Giants are going to be running the ball. Skattebo showed last year that he is capable of running against top defenses. He ran for 60 yards against Denver and 79 yards against the Chargers. He ran for over his total today in 5 straight games before getting injured. He is back in action tonight and should be set up for success with this new offense that is built to run.