Falcons at Packers

Week 3is here and boy am I happy to see the back of Week 2. Injuries plagued our Best Bets and my Giants. We turn the page and are looking for a bounce back. It begins tonight with a Thursday Night Football game between the Falcons and Packers. It should be an interesting game and I have picked what I believe to be the Best Bet for the matchup. Let’s win some money!

Best Bet: Christian Watson Receiving Yards over 71.5

Odds

The Public Numbers

The Packers are hosting the Falcons and are 5.5 point favorites. The public is betting heavily on the Packers to win this game outright with 91% of the bets and 52% of the money being placed on Packers mL. 53% of the bets are being placed on Packers -5.5 while 63% of the money are being placed on the Falcons +5.5. The point total is set at 43.5 with 59% of the bets and 58% of the money being placed on the under.

So far this year, both teams are 0-2 against the spread.

Match-up Overview

These teams have faced each other 36 times. The Packers hold the edge in the all-time series 19-17. The most recent matchup was on September 17th, 2023, and was a 25-24 Falcons victory.

The Falcons enter this game needing to win. They are 0-2 and are already in the conversation of being the worst team in the NFL. It is not entirely their fault, they have been plagued by injuries and a revolving door at QB. Tonight, they get their starting QB back with the return of Michael Penix. Penix is returning from an injury that he suffered last season and will see the field for the first time this year. His return could not have come at a better time since the Falcons have trotted out the league’s worst pass offense in the first two weeks of the season. They have only averaged 123 yards through the air. Their leading receiver on the year is Bijan Robinson who, aside from being their running back, only has 99 yards. Weapons like Drake London and Kyle Pitts have been virtually invisible in the short season so far. They face a tough Packers defense so it will be an interesting matchup tonight. The run game of the Falcons goes through Bijan Robinson who has 155 yards and no TDs on the season so far. His efforts have elevated the Falcons run offense to the 7th best rushing game. There is bound to be some rust for Michael Penix so I would expect Robinson to continue to be the centerpiece of the offense.

The defense for the Falcons has been fairly good despite the 0-2 team record. They have the best rush defense in the league so far, allowing just 63 yards per game. They have struggled against the pass, allowing 239 yards. That is ranked 23rd in the league. A big blow to the secondary was felt this past week when starting corner, A.J Terrell was placed on IR. The defensive front has been dealing with injuries since the preseason and has struggled to create consistent pressure. They face a weak Packers offensive line that should typically present opportunities for opposing defenses.

The Packers are averaging 21 points per game on offense. They have looked disjointed early on and are clearly missing the running ability of Josh Jacobs who is on the commissioners exempt list. As a result, their run game is ranked 32nd in the league, averaging 64 yards per game. This means that they have been relying on the arm of Jordan Love to move the ball down the field. Love has thrown for 532 yards and 4 TDs this year. He has been relying heavily on weapons like Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft. The Packers as a whole have the 9th ranked pass game in the league. They are primed for a big night against a banged-up Falcons secondary.

The defense for the Packers has been performing decently so far this year while the offense tries to find their footing. They are allowing 28 points per game, which is 24th in the league. However, they are stout against the run and are limiting gains through the air. The issue has been penalties, allowing drives to continue and allowing opponents to get into scoring position. They are allowing 175 pass yards per game, which is ranked 9th, and 87 rush yards per game, which is 8th in the league.

Injuries

Falcons

• Samson Ebukam (DE) – Out
• Billy Bowman Jr. (CB) – Questionable
• A.J Terrell (CB) – Out/IR
• Dashawn Hand (DT) – Out/IR
• Cameron Williams (OL) – Out/IR

Packers

• Aaron Banks (G) – Out
• Warren Brinson (DT) – Out
• Javon Hargrave (DT) – Questionable
• Jaden Reed (WR) – Out
• Zach Bako-Bewele (OT) – Out

Best Bet Background: Christian Watson Receiving Yards over 71.5

Christian Watson has been on a hot streak to start this year. He has 10 receptions for 188 yards and 3 TDs. He leads the Packers in receiving yards and receptions. Tonight, he faces an Atlanta secondary that is down A.J Terrell and has been letting up a ton of pass yards. The Packers offense has been struggling with consistency but Watson should have the opportunity for some big plays tonight. Last week, he was pretty well contained by the Jets and is looking for a bounce back performance tonight. Green Bay does not run the ball very well which should force them to continue throwing throughout the night. Watson will compete for targets with Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft but should continue to demand the lions share of targets.