NFL Week 4: Monday Night Football Best Bet and Preview

Falcons at Saints

Our Best Bets went 2-3 yesterday and are at 2-4for the week. Tonight, we need to get a win. We have the Falcons and Saints playing on Monday Night Football to end Week 4. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe will hit. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet: Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards over 44.5

Game Odds

The Public Numbers

The Saints are a 1.5 favorite at home tonight. The public is appears to be split on the winner of this game. 70% of the bets are being placed on the Saints to win while 57% of the money is being placed on the Falcons to win. 56% of the bets and 68% of the money are being placed on the Falcons to cover 1.5. The total is set at 47.5 points and the public is anticipating an over. 54% of the bets and 65% of the money are being placed on over 47.5.

Match-up Overview

These NFC South rivals have plenty of history playing one another. They have played each other 114 times. The Falcons lead the all-time series 58-56. The last matchup was on January 4, 2026 and was a 19-17 Atlanta victory. In the last 5 games, the Falcons have won 3.

The Falcons are 1-2 on the year and are coming off of their first win last week. They beat the Green Bay Packers 35-14 in a convincing fashion. Prior to last week, the Falcons were in the conversation as one of the worst teams in the league. They got QB Michael Penix back and looked like a completely different team. Some of that might just be a reflection of how bad the Packers are but they deserve credit for such a convincing win. Even with last weeks offensive output, the Falcons are ranked 27th in points scored per game by averaging 17 per game. They have relied heavily on their run game via Bijan Robinson and are the 2nd best rushing attack in the league. They are averaging 173 yards per game. Through the air, they are 29th and averaging 167 yards er game. However, those numbers were heavily affected by the play of Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. Now with Penix back, they should be much more efficient through the air. The key matchup will be this run game against the Saints defense that has been allowing big games to opposing running backs.

The defense for the Falcons are allowing 22.7 points per game, which is 15th in the league. They are the best run defense in the league, allowing just 47 yards per game. Again this number is probably heavily affected by the opponents rather than how they are actually playing. They have a good matchup tonight as the Saints are not a great running team. The pass defense is the area for concern here. They are allowing 263 yards per game, which is 29th in the league. Injuries on this side of the ball will be a reason for concern (see injury report below).

The Saints are 1-2 on the year after losing in a shutout to the Raiders last week. The Saints offense has been averaging 27 points per game, which is 11th in the league. They are led by QB Tyler Shough, who has 917 yards and 8 TDs so far. His favorite target has clearly been Chris Olave, who has 27 receptions, 375 yards, and 1 TD. Together, the pass game for the Saints are averaging 281 yards per game, which is 3rd in the league. The run game has been struggling on the ground and it won’t be helped with Travis Etienne being designated for IR. The Saints are averaging 101 yards per game, which is 16th in thee league.

The Saints defense is allowing 27.7 points per game, which is 26th in the NFL. They are allowing 211 pass yards per game, which is 16th in the league. Against the run, they are allowing 128 yards per game, which is 27th in the league. This matchup does favor Atlanta who runs the ball so the Saints will have to play good complementary football to keep Atlanta from running the ball.

Injuries

Falcons

Yasir Abdullah (LB) – Questionable
Divine Deablo (LB) – Questionable
Samson Ebukam (DE) – Questionable
AJ Terrell (CB) – Out
Dashawn Hand (DT) – Out

Saints

Jordyn Tyson (WR) – Out
Anfernee Jennings (LB) – Out
Pete Werner (LB) – Questionable
Carl Granderson (DE) – Out
Kaden Elliss (LB) – Out

Best Bet Background – Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards over 44.5

While Chris Olave is the primary target for Tyler Shough, Juwan Johnson is his 2nd or 3rd. Johnson has gone over 50+ yards in the last 5 games that he has played with Shough. He has a great matchup tonight against the Falcons. The Falcons will need to shift their defense to take away Chris Olave and force the saints to rely on Johnson and Devaughn Vele. Even if Olave starts getting the bulk of the targets, I still believe that Shough will find Johsnon for more than 45 yards. I would also sprinkle some on Johnson anytime TD tonight.