AFC North
The AFC North has long been the picture of consistency. These organizations do not like to make changes on a whim. That is why this past offseason was monumental. The Ravens and Steelers parted ways with their head coaches of 18 and 19 years respectively. The Browns also have a new head coach but it is not out of the norm for Cleveland to make changes. For those keeping track, there are 3 new coaches in the division. With them, comes brand new staffs, schemes, and expectations.
Division Winner Odds
- Baltimore Ravens (-112)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+184)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+510)
- Cleveland Browns (+2100)
Baltimore Ravens – 11.5
- Head Coach – Jesse Minter
- OC- Declan Doyle
- DC – Anthony Weaver
- 2025 Record – 8-9
- Strength of Schedule – 5th Easiest
After 18 years of stability under John Harbaugh, the Ravens decided to bring in new blood. The writing was on the wall for Harbaugh who had struggled to get the Ravens back to their Championship ways. They have had playoff success but were not getting past the AFC Championship game. Last year, the team was hit with a slew of injuries, and they struggled to string together wins. Their season ended on a missed field goal in Week 18 against the Steelers. The loss cemented an 8-9 finish and they missed the playoffs. Harbaugh was fired shortly after this loss.
The new head coach is Jesse Minter, who was most recently the DC for the Chargers, working under Jim Harbaugh. Minter previously worked as a defensive assistant for the Ravens between 2017-2020. He then spent 3 years coaching in college before returning to the NFL. The Chargers defenses were a top 10 defense under Minter’s coaching. He will be calling the defensive plays for the Ravens. He hired a staff of Declan Doyle as OC and Anthony Weaver as DC. Doyle comes over from Chicago where he was the OC for Ben Johnson. This will be his first time calling plays in the NFL. Weaver was the DC for the Dolphins over the past 2 seasons. He was also a defensive assistant for the Ravens between 2021-2023.
Offense
The offense is going to be led by quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson has been receiving some disrespect this offseason when people have been publishing their lists of best QBs in the league. Lamar is a 2-time MVP, 3-time 1st Team All-Pro and a 4-time Pro Bowler. He is one of the most electric players when he is on the field. Public opinion of Lamar might be shifting due to the team’s record last year and his woeful playoff record. Neither are necessarily his fault, but QBs will always be judged by post season success. It might also be due to the fact that he was injured last year and only appeared in 13 games. His stats obviously suffered as he finished with 2549yards, 21 TDs, and 7 interceptions. He also ran for 349 yards and 2 TDs. Whatever the reason for the disrespect this year, I would expect Lamar to return to his MVP form with a chip on his shoulder. The big question will be how he adjusts to Declan Doyle’s new offensive system.
A great complement to Lamar’s running ability is the bruising style of Derrick Henry. Henry is entering his 11th year in the league and should still be considered as one of the best running backs in the game. There are very few people that have his combination of speed, size, and toughness. After a stellar 1st year in Baltimore, his production dipped a bit in his 2nd season with them. Considering that he almost ran for 2000 yards in 2024, that was to be expected. He ran for 1595 yards and 16 TDs. He was 2nd in the league in both categories. When Lamar went down with injury, Henry became the focal point of this offense.
The Ravens decided to reward their star receiver, Zay Flowers, with a monster extension earlier this month. Flowers and the Ravens agreed to a 4-year, $140 million extension. The money was well earned. Flowers has been the leading receiver for the Ravens in each of is 3 years on the team. Last year was the best season of Flowers’ short career so far. He had 86 receptions for 1211 yards and 5 TDs. He ranked 7th in the league in yards. The Ravens have never really been a prolific passing offense but having Flowers as their WR1 provides this offense with a high caliber play maker that they can build the rest of the receiving corps around.
Once you get past Flowers, the receiving room gets pretty thin. They have Rashod Bateman who has been struggling to have his breakout year. Ravens’ fans thought 2024 was a sign of more things to come when he posted a career high 756 yards and 9 TDs. However, he failed to replicate that production in 2025, and he finished with 224 yards and 2 TDs. Perhaps he will benefit from a new play caller. Next up on the depth chart is Devontez Walker who has 157 yards and 4 TDs over his first 2 seasons. These players will need to step up to give Lamar some more options in the pass game.
One option that Lamar will certainly continue to lean on is Mark Andrews. The 8-year vet has been a reliable target for his QB ever since he came into the league in 2018. One issue that has plagued Andrews is his ability to stay healthy. He worked his way back onto the field last year and finished the season with 422 yards and 5 TDs. The Ravens had a key departure at this position when Isiah Likely followed John Harbaugh to New York, so Andrews should be in line to have a very productive season. Behind him is Durham Smythe who is more of a blocking tight end at this point in his career.
The starting offensive line is projected to be Ronnie Staley at left tackle and Roger Rosengarten at right tackle. The guards will be John Simpson at left guard and Olaivavega Ioane at right guard. Ioane is a rookie that was drafted in the 1st round of this year’s draft out of Penn State. The Ravens have high hopes for him to secure the middle of this offensive line. Another key departure on this offense was center Tyler Linderbaum. In his place with be veteran Ethan Pocic.
Defense
The defense for the Ravens will have a new play caller with Jesse Minter taking over that role. They were ranked 18th in points allowed per game last year, allowing 23.4 points per game. There should be plenty of talent on this defense for Minter to turn into a successful group.
Starting up front, they are projected to have Travis Jones start at nose tackle. Jones had 47 tackles and 5 sacks last year. He is currently dealing with a pec injury but has started practicing as of 8/11. Flanking him will be Nnamdi Madubuike and Calais Campbell. Madubuike is returning from a nec injury that sidelined him all last year. It would be a huge boost to this defensive front as they struggled last year without him. Calais Campbell is the ageless wonder at the defensive end position. He is 39 years old and is showing no signs of slowing down. He recorded 43 tackles and 6.5 sacks last year with the Cardinals. It is also a reunion for him and the Ravens as he played for them between 2020 – 2022.
The edge rushers got an upgrade this offseason as well. They technically had Maxx Crosby for about a day when they traded away 2 1st round picks for the superstar. They decided that there was something wrong with his knee however and backed out of the trade. They went a different route and signed Trey Hendrickson instead. Hendrickson is very familiar to Ravens fans as he has been wreaking havoc as a member of the Bengals for the past few years. During his 5 years in Cincinnati, he recorded double digit sack totals in 3 of 5 of the years. He was injured last season and only managed 4 sacks. However, he brings some new blood to this pass rush that they desperately need.
Playing on the other side of the line will be Tavius Robinson. Robinson had 4.5 sacks and 28 tackles. With Trey on the other side commanding double teams, Robinson should have a chance to be much more productive this season. The Ravens also have Mike Green and Zion Young that they can rotate in.
The interior linebackers will be Roquan Smith and Teddye Buchanan. Smith is a 4 time Pro Bowler and a 3 time 1st team All-Pro player. He is the anchor of the middle of this defense and should continue to thrive no matter what system he plays in. Last year he had 130 tackles and 5 TFLs. Minter will rely on him to continue making plays this year. Buchanan will be lining up next to him once he returns from injury. He is projected to make his return for the season opener against the Colts. He had 93 total tackles in his rookie season last year.
Behind them will be the starting corners Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins. Humphrey is entering his 10th year in the league. He was once one of the best corners in the NFL. In fact, he earned 1st team All-Pro honors just last season. So, he can still play at very high level. Last year he recorded 68 total tackles and 4 interceptions. Nate Wiggins is projected to be the other starting corner. Unfortunately, Wiggins was carted off the practice field on 8/11 and is still undergoing diagnostic tests to determine if he will miss time. He is a big component of this secondary and would be a big blow to it if he does miss time. Last year he recorded 76 total tackles and 3 interceptions. Should he miss time, it looks like the Ravens would lean on veteran Chidobe Awuzie. Awuzie is a 9-year veteran and could hold down the fort until Wiggins returns.
Luckily for this secondary, they have one of the best safety’s in the NFL to help overcome any injury issues. Kyle Hamilton has only been in the league for 4 years but has been voted to 1st team All-Pro twice and the Pro Bowl 3 times. He is the model of consistency and versatility. He is able to be used in coverage or near the line of scrimmage as an additional linebacker. Last year, he recorded 105 total tackles and forced 2 fumbles. Next to him will be Malaki Starks who is entering his 2nd year. He recorded 84 total tackles and 2 interceptions last year. The Ravens expect him to take a jump this year but he rounds out a very solid safety room for Baltimore.
Summary
There is a new head coach in Baltimore for the 1st time since 2008. Jesse Minter will definitely bring some organizational change but the Ravens plenty of talent of their roster returning, so expectations are going to remain high. Vegas seems to agree as they set their win total as high as anyone else in the league. Given the strength of schedule and the overall talent on this roster, I believe that the over is definitely achievable. They just need to stay healthy. They do have a late Bye Week (Week 13) so that might cause some injuries to pile up. Or it might be the perfect time to rest up as they finished their season with 4 straight division games that very well could determine the winner of the AFC North.
Bet – Over 11.5 (-125)
Cincinnati Bengals – 10.5
- Head Coach – Zac Taylor
- OC – Dan Pitcher
- DC – Al Golden
- 2025 record – 6-11
- Strength of Schedule – 2nd Easiest
The only team that decided to make no changes to their coaching staff was the Bengals. This is perhaps not so surprising as their owner, Mike Brown is well known for not wanting to waste or spend money. Despite not finishing above 3rd in the division over the last 3 years, Zac Taylor’s job was secure as 2026 begins.
The 2025 season was a rough one for the Bengals. They got off to a rocky start and it was made worse by an injury to quarterback Joe Burrow. By the time their Week 10 bye came around, they were sitting at 3-6. They went out and traded for Joe Flacco to step in for Burrow. That move yield some positive results but the damage on the season was done. The main narrative for the Bengals was the same one that has been in place for several years. When Burrow is healthy, their offense can be one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. However, their defense has been terrible for several seasons, so the team is never really in position to close out games. They made some moves this offseason that may address them so perhaps this is the year things turn around.
Offense
As mentioned above, when Joe Burrow is healthy, the Bengals can have the highest scoring offense in the league. The problem is, Burrow has seemingly been injured every other season. Last year was one of those seasons. He only started 8 games last year. He went 5-3 in those appearances and threw for 1664 yards, 17 TDs and 5 interceptions. Filling in for him were Jake Browing, who went 0-3, and Joe Flacco, who went 1-5. In order for this team to be successful, they need to keep Burrow healthy.
One way to keep Burrow healthy is to have him hand the ball off more. He has a great option in Chase Brown to lean on. Brown has emerged as a solid running back in the league. He has shown the ability to run effectively while also being a reliable receiver for his quarterbacks. Last year, he ran for 1019 yards and 6 TDs while also having 69 catches for 437 yards and 5 TDs. Behind him will once again be Samaje Perine who offers a good backup option and a 3rd down blocking back. It seems pretty straight forward to me. If Burrow wants to stay healthy, the Bengals need to lean into the run game a bit more.
That matter of opinion might be easier said than done because the Bengals have one of, if not the, best wide receiver duo in the NFL. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are essentially both WR1s. Ja’Marr is clearly the top target as he totaled 125 receptions for 1412 yards and 8 TDs. He has incredible after the catch ability and is essentially a touchdown waiting to happen if he creates separation. He has earned 1st Team All-Pro honors in back-to-back seasons and has been a Pro Bowler in every year of his 5-year career.
Tee Higgins has shown every capability of being the top receiver for this team but plays the WR2 role perfectly. The only issue that Tee has had is staying healthy. Over the past 3 seasons, he has missed 12 games total. Last year, he appeared in 15 games and had 59 receptions for 846 yards and 11 TDs. Higgins has shown the ability to make acrobatic circus catches that gives plenty of confidence to whoever is throwing him the ball. Rounding out the room will be Andrei Iosivas and Mitchell Tinsley. Iosivas provides a reliable target out of the slot. Last year he had 435 yards and 2 TDs. Tinsley is a fun player to watch because he can make plenty of circus catches of his own.
At the tight end position, the Bengals will be starting Mike Gesicki. Gesicki is entering his 9th season in the league. He had 28 catches for 307 yards in 2025 but should benefit from the return of Burrow this year. Behind him is Drew Sample. Sample has proven to be a reliable target when his number is called. He had 15 receptions for 106 yards and 1 TD last year.
The offensive line has long been an issue for the Bengals. They have taken the criticism to heart and have built a solid starting 5, all of whom are returning this year. At left tackle they will once again have Orlando Brown Jr. At right tackle will be Amarius Mims. At guards they will start Dylan Fairchild at left guard and Dalton Risner at right guard. At center will be Ted Karras. Continuity at this position can only help improve their chemistry and their ability to protect the quarterback.
Defense
The other area that has been heavily critiqued by the public and by anyone watching Bengals games has been their defense. They were ranked 30th in the NFL in points allowed per game last year, allowing 28.9 points per game. So, they went out to address the problem this year.
They made a big splash right before the Draft by acquiring Dexter Lawrence from the Giants. Dexter “Sexy Dexy” Lawrence is considered to be the best defensive tackle in the NFL. The trade has seemingly reenergized Dex as he acclimates to his new team. Last year was a down year for Dex but that was mainly due to recovering from an elbow injury. He should be back to his dominant ways this year. The Bengals also added Jonathan Allen to play next to Lawrence. Allen comes over to the Bengals in free agency after spending 1 year with the Vikings. He had 68 tackles and 3.5 sacks last year. Prior to the Vikings, he spent 8 years in Washington with the Commanders. These 2 NFC East cast offs should provide the Bengals with a much-improved defensive front.
The improvements did not end at the tackle position. The Bengals also brought in EDGE rusher Boye Mafe, who just won a Super Bowl with the Seahawks. Mafe was one of the top available free agents and will aim to fill the gap left by Trey Hendrickson leaving. On the other end of the line will be Myles Murphy who is entering his 4th year with the Bengals. He had 52 tackles and 5.5 sacks last year. This tandem paired with the tackles on the interior will be one to keep an eye on moving forward.
Once you get past the defensive front, there is some cause for concern with the remaining defensive roster. The starting linebackers will be Barrett Carter at middle linebacker, Demetrius Knight and the weakside backer, and Oren Burks at the strongside backer. Carter had 106 tackles last year during his rookie year. Knight also had 106 tackles last year during his rookie year. Burks is the veteran in the room and had 48 tackles last year. This is a young group, but they should be able to grow more into their roles this year.
The projected starting corners are listed as DJ Turner II and Dax Hill. Turner is entering his 4th year in the league and as a member of the Bengals. Last year, he had 40 tackles and 2 interceptions. Hill is entering his 5th year with the Bengals and had 88 tackles and 1 interception last year. Considering that these players were on the team last year, this will still be an area of concern moving forward.
The safety room will consist of Jordan Battle and Bryan Cook. Battle led the team in tackles last year with 125 total tackles and also had 4 interceptions. He will be joined by newly acquired Bryan Cook. Cook signed this offseason after spending 4 seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs. He had 85 total tackles last year. This combination should be a very solid tandem that can help solidify this secondary.
Summary
The Bengals was the only team in the division that kept their coaching staff in place. They seem like they are running it back and hoping for a different outcome. The same narratives that have surrounded will be monitored this year. The offense can be one of the best in the league, but can Burrow can stay healthy? Will the defense continue to be the Achilles heel? The health of Joe Burrow remains to be seen but it is encouraging that the offensive line is returning 5 starters. That should help keep him upright at least. He has an embarrassment of riches in terms of weapons; it’ll just be a matter of putting it all together. On defense, they made some key additions like Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, and Bryan Cook. If they can be even slightly better than previous years, it could propel this team to a playoff push. One remaining concern for this team is the fact that that have gotten off to incredibly slow starts at the beginning of the season. That being said, I think that they find a way to win 11 games.
Bet – Over 10.5 (+115)
Cleveland Browns – 5.5
- Head Coach – Todd Monken
- OC – Travis Switzer
- DC – Mike Rutenberg
- 2025 Record – 5-12
- Strength of Schedule – 6th Easiest
2025 was the last year of the Kevin Stefanski era in Cleveland. It was a tough season that was pretty much dead on a arrival. There was no fanfare or hype around this team during the year. The only thing that made the team interesting was it’s quarterback situation and they had Myles Garrett break the single season sack record. The quarterback situation dominated the headlines through the year because they drafted both Dillion Gabirel and Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft. They also signed Joe Flacco to be the starter. Flacco was given 4 games before being traded to the Bengals (who are in the division). Gabirel started 6 games and then Sanders started the remaining 7. They ended the year 5-12 and decided to clean house. Or mostly. DC Jim Schwartz was still on the payroll and wanted the head coaching job. When he was passed over for the job, he quit.
The person they brought in instead of promoting internally was Todd Monken. Monken was the OC for the Ravens (also in the division) and was kind of a surprise hire for a lot of people. There were reports that Monken was getting ready to accept the OC job with the Giants to stay with Harbaugh. However, the Browns offered him the job and he accepted. He had to scramble to put together a staff. OC, Travis Switzer, was the run game coordinator in Baltimore with Monken. His new DC, Mike Rutenberg, was most recently the defensive pass game coordinator for the Falcons. Prior to that, he spent 5 years as the Jets’ linebackers coach. As this new staff kicks off the year, there is still a major question that needs to be answered. Who will be the starting quarterback.
Offense
The options for Monken and Switzer are not exactly great. It is apparently an open competition between Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillion Gabriel. Watson has not played football since October of 2024. Even when he was playing that year, it did not look good. Gabriel was given a shot at the starting role and went 1-5 in his starts. He threw for 937 yards, 7 TDs, and 2 interceptions. The wins didn’t come so they turned to Sanders. Sanders went 3-4 in his 7 starts and threw for 1400 yards, 7 TDs, and 10 interceptions. As training camp and the preseason continues to unfold, we should get some clarity on this QB battle. It appears that Sanders has the edge, but who knows what the Browns will do. They were ranked 31st in points scored last year, so they need to make sure that they pick the right leader to start turning this team around.
One of the few bright spots on this low scoring offense in 2025 was rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. Judkins started 14 games for the Browns last year and a lot of promise. He ran for 827 yards and 7 TDs. He was an exciting back to watch and occasionally gave this low octane offense some life. This year should be a big year for Judkins as he hopes to start all 17 games. Behind him will be Dylan Sampson, who ran for 175 yards last year.
The wide receivers have potential to be incredibly productive this year. It will of course be determined by who is throwing the ball. The room is led by Jerry Jeudy who is entering his 7th season in the NFL and 3rd with the Browns. Last year, he had 602 yards and 2 TDs. He has shown the potential to put up much bigger numbers. He does struggle a bit with drops and consistency. However, when he is playing well, he can be as good as any receiver in the game. He will no longer have to be the sole target in the receiver room. The Browns drafted 2 receivers in this years draft to bolster their ranks. First, they drafted KC Concepcion out of Texas A&M with the 24th overall pick this year. Concepcion is an exciting young receiver that the Browns hope can develop into a top receiver. Then they drafted Denzel Boston out of Washington with the 39th overall pick. Boston is a big-bodied 6’4” receiver that gives some size to this offense. They also still have Isiah Bond, who had 338 yards last year, and Cedric Tillman, who had 270 yards in 2025.
The leading receiver for the Browns in 2025 was not found in the receiver’s room. It was their rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. Fannin had 72 receptions for 731 yards and 6 TDs in his rookie campaign. He was thrust into action due to David Njoku’s injury. Now Njoku isa Charger, so Fannin will continue to be the top target in this offense. Behind him is Joe Royer who was drafted out of Cincinnati in the 5th round.
The offensive line is an area that needs to improve greatly if this offense is going to be improved. The Browns addressed this with their 1st pick in this year’s draft. They picked left tackle Spencer Fano out of Utah. Fano is going to start right away, which is always a tough ask of any rookie tackle. The right tackle will be Tytus Howard, who just spent 7 seasons as a member of the Texans. At left guard will be Zion Johnson who spent the last 4 seasons as a member of the Chargers. The right guard will be Teven Jenkins who played for the Browns last year. The center will be Elgton Jenkins, who comes over from Green Bay. This is a new group, so it will be a matter of how quickly they can mesh together. If they manage to do so, they could provide a great base for this offense to work with.
Defense
The defense in 2025 allowed 22.3 points per game, which was 14th in the league. It was the only part of the Browns that performed at a high-level last year. Despite that, they decided to let DC Jim Schwartz walk and then traded Myles Garrett to the Rams. New DC Mike Rutenberg will have some big shoes to fill. Even with the Garrett trade, there should be plenty of talent on this defense to be competitive.
Starting with the defensive tackles, the Browns will have 2 solid starters in the middle. Mason Graham is entering his 2nd year and is looking to improve on his rookie year. He had 49 tackles and 0.5 sacks last year. He was drafted 5th overall last year so there are obviously high expectations. Next to him will be Maliek Collins. Collins had25 tackles and 6.5 sacks last year. He only played in 12 games and is still dealing with an injury to has quadriceps. Should he be unable to go, either Mike Hall or Kalia Davis will most likely take his place.
On the edge will be the player that was sent back in the Garrett trade. Jared Verse is a very good pass rusher and should definitely help lessen the sting of losing Garrett. Verse had 7.5 sacks last year for the Rams. He is only entering his 3rd year so there is plenty of time for him to develop into an elite rusher. On the other side of the line will be Alex Wright. Wright had 5.5 sacks last year in just 14 games. He will have an opportunity with the absence of Garrett to play a bigger role in his 5th season.
The Browns have a very solid linebacker corps as well. The starting middle linebacker will be Carson Schwesinger. Schwesinger had 156 total tackles, 2.5 sacks, and 2 interceptions in his rookie year. For his efforts, he was voted the Defensive Player of the Year. He was a great find in the 2nd round of last year’s draft. It looks like he will be a great producer for year to come. The Browns went out and got him some help as well. They signed Quincy Williams to play the strong side linebacker. Williams had several very productive years with the Jets. He reunites with his linebackers coach, Mike Rutenberg, and adds a veteran presence in this room to fill the void of Devin Bush leaving. Playing the weakside will be Winston Reid. Reid had 23 tackles last year during his rookie campaign.
The secondary returns most of its starters this year. Denzel Ward is a 5-time Pro Bowler and will be responsible for covering the opponents WR1. Last year he had 39 tackles and 1 interception. He has reached the pedigree where quarterbacks throw elsewhere. That is where players like Tyson Campbell and Myles Harden enter the conversation. Campbell joined the team in a trade with the Jaguars last year. In 12 games with the Browns, he had 53 tackles and 1 interception. Harden is listed as the nickel. He had 48 tackles last year.
The safety room also returns its 2 starters. Ronnie Hickman had 103 total tackles and 2 interceptions last year. His fellow safety, Grant Delpit, had 89 total tackles and 1 interception. This duo will continue to work on their chemistry with the rest of this secondary.
Summary
The Browns made a ton of changes in the offseason. They turned over their coaching staff and are once again searching for a starting quarterback. They seemingly have a 3-horse race as the preseason begins. Although, it appears that it will really come down to Sanders and Watson. In all honesty, none of the options inspire much confidence. On defense, they should continue to be a solid group, despite the Myles Garrett trade. The addition of Jared Verse has flown under the radar for the most part and they still have some young talent on the line. Their linebackers and secondary will probably be overlooked but will surprise some people this year. It will also depend on the play calling and leadership ability of their new DC. The Browns will be an interesting team to watch but not necessarily on the football field. Another year of not having a clear cut QB1 does not bode well for wins. I would take the under here.
Bet – Under 5.5 (+110)
Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5
- Head Coach – Mike McCarthy
- OC – Brian Angelichio
- DC – Patrick Graham
- 2025 Record – 10-7
- Strength of Schedule- 17th Easiest
2025 proved to be the final year of the Mike Tomlin era in Pittsburgh. He was the head coach for 19 years and provided them with several years of stability. He won a Super Bowl in 2008 and always fielded a competitive team. In his 19 years as a Head Coach, he never posted a losing season. Towards the end of his tenure, fans became frustrated with the lack of playoff success for the Steelers. They would finish above .500 and then lose in their 1st playoff game. After several years of this, it was apparently the end of the road for Tomlin as well. The season ended with for Steelers with a 30-6 loss in the Wild card round to the Texans. Mike Tomlin announced shortly after that he was stepping away. He will be remembered as a legendary coach and is now part of the NBC Sunday Night Football broadcasting team.
With Tomlin leaving, the Steelers brought in Pittsburgh local Mike McCarthy to lead the team. McCarthy was most recently the head coach for the Dallas Cowboys and took a year off after not signing a new contract with them. In his 18 years of coaching, Big Mike has a 174-112 record and a Super Bowl ring with the Packers. He will bring a new offensive identity to this team as he reunites with Aaron Rodgers. He will be handling the offensive play calling but also hired Brian Angelichio as his OC. He hired Patrick Graham as his DC, which was a great hire. Graham has been the DC for the Giants and Raiders going back to 2020. He has never had the most talented teams but definitely elevates them. Last year, the Raiders were 14th in the league in terms of yards allowed and they were not good. HE inherits a talented roster this year and it will be exciting to see what he does with them.
Offense
Aaron Rodgers is entering his last season in the NFL. He is returning for his 22nd season and made the decision to do so because Mike McCarthy is coaching the Steelers. There were definitely some other factors but that might be one of the larger football related reasons. It is a full circle moment for Rodgers and McCarthy who spent 13 seasons in Green Bay together and won a Super Bowl. They are hoping to replicate that success this year. In his 1st season with the Steelers, Rodgers led them to the playoffs. He finished the season with 3322 yards, 24 TDs, and 7 interceptions. He might not be as mobile as he once was but he showed that he can still sling the ball around.
The Steelers essentially have 2 capable starting in their backfield. The primary back will be Jaylen Warren who just had his most productive season of his career in 2025. He ran for 958 yards and 6TDs. He also had 40 receptions for 333 yards and 2 TDs. His play style allows him to be a major threat in both the run and pass game. He typically has shared snaps with another back and this year will be no different. Last year, he split snaps with Kenny Gainwell. Gainwell is no longer with the team so now it will be free agent signing Rico Dowdle. Dowdle has been a bit of a late bloomer in the NFL but has recorded back-to-back 1000+ yard seasons. He is a big back that will consistently get you about 50 yards a game. Then he will have a few games where he looks unstoppable. Last year, he had games where he recorded 183 and 206 yards. This duo should provide a great base for this McCarthy offense.
The receivers for the Steelers are going to be DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. Both of these receivers are 6’4” and provide large targets for Aaron Rodgers. Metcalf joined the Steelers last offseason and has been building chemistry with Aaron Rodgers ever since. In his first year with the team, he had 59 receptions for 850 yards and 6 TDs. It was the lowest yardage total for Metcalf in his career but a new offensive scheme and a new receiver in the room should help his numbers. That new receiver is Michael Pittman who came over from the Colts in a trade. Pittman was a Colt for 6 seasons and was solidly productive throughout all of them. Last year, he had 784 yards and 7 TDs. This big receiver tandem seems like a throwback duo, and we could see a lot of big plays from them this year.
The other receivers on the team will be fighting to carve out their own roles. The current WR3 is Roman Wilson, who had 166 yards and 2 TDs last year. They have Ben Skowronek who is mostly a special teams contributor. They also drafted Germie Bernard in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. A constant throughout Aaron Rodgers’ career is that he finds “his guy” on offense that he can rely on. It might be someone in this group.
If it isn’t one of those guys, then it might be one of the talented tight ends that they have on the roster. Pat Freirmuth is listed as the starter as he enters his 6th season. Last year he had 486 yards and 4 TDs. He provides a big, reliable target over the middle for Rodgers. The other tight end on the roster provides an even bigger target. Darnell Washington is 6’7″ and listed at 264 lbs. but has played a t over 300 lbs. before. He is freakishly athletic for such a big man. Last year, he started to get more involved in the offense and had career highs of 31 receptions for 364 yards and 1 TD.
The offensive line will be returning 5 guys to their starting lineup this year. At left tackle, they will have Troy Fautanu entering his 3rd year. At right tackle will be Dylan Cook. The starting guards will be Mason McCormick at left guard and Spencer Anderson at right guard. At center will be Zach Frazier.
Defense
The defense will have a new play caller with Pat Graaham taking over as DC. He inherits a very talented roster. He has a history of having groups overperform based on their talent level so Steelers fans should be very excited by this hire.
The defensive line will consist of Yahya Black at nose tackle and then Derrick Harmon and Cameron Heyward as the other tackles. Black had 28 tackles last year and forced 2 fumbles. Derrick Harmon missed 5 games last year but should be back to full health this year. He had 27 tackles and 3 sacks in 2025. Cam Heyward had 78 tackles and 3.5 sacks in his 15th NFL season. He is the Steelers’ version of the ageless wonder and is the leader of the defense that this point. They also added Sebastion Joseph-Day in free agency to bolster the middle of this defense.
The outside linebackers have a 3-headed monster that will allow them to pick-and-choose their matchups this year. It all starts with TJ Watt. Watt is one of the more decorated pass rushers in the league at this point. He has been to 8 straight Pro Bowls, voted to the 1st Team All-Pro 4 times, and was the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year. Last year he had 7 sacks and 55 tackles in a down year. This year, Graham is going to move him around and I believe we should expect a highly productive year from Watt. On the other side of the line will be Alex Highsmith who has turned into a very productive pass rusher Last year he had 9.5 sacks and 50 total tackles. He struggled a bit with injuries over the last couple of seasons but is a huge part of this defense when fully healthy.
The 3rd rusher to know on this defense is Nick Herbig. He is the young guy in the room and will most likely replace Watt or Highsmith when their careers are over. Last year, he had 30 tackles and 7.5 sacks in just 15 games. He was given an extension this offseason, so he is clearly in the long-term plans for the Steelers.
The interior linebackers will be Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson. Queen is a 2-time Pro Bowler and is the guy they count on in the middle of the defense. He had 120 total tackles and 1 sack last year. The 120 tackles were 2nd on the team to his fellow linebacker Paytom Wilson. Wilson had 126 total tackles and 2 sacks. This is a very productive and reliable linebacker tandem.
The secondary will start Joey Porter Jr. and Jamel Dean. Porter Jr. is entering his 4th year and is angling for a new deal with the team. Last year he emerged as one of the better cornerbacks despite missing 3 games during the regular season. He recorded 52 tackles and 1 interception. Jamel Dean was signed in free agency this offseason. He spent the first 7 years of his career as a member of the Buccaneers. Last year he had 46 total tackles, 3 interceptions, and 1 TD. Should both of these guys be healthy, they could be considered one of the more reliable corner tandems in the NFL. They also have Jalen Ramsey who is listed as the nickel back but has been used as a safety. Ramsey is now a veteran in the league and will turn 32 this year. He can act like a Swiss army knife and play where he is needed. He still has plenty of playmaking ability and showed that last year when he had 88 total tackles, 3 sacks, and 1 interception.
At Safety, the Steelers will start DeShon Elliot and Jaquan Brisker. Elliot missed significant time last year, which is why Jalen Ramsey ended up playing safety. He only appeared in 5 games but should be back to full health this year. Brisker comes over from the Bears in free agency. He had 93 total tackles and 1 interception last year. He is entering his 5th year in the league and will be some additional physicality to an already physical defense.
Summary
The Steelers had to go through a head coaching change for the first time in 19 years. They brough in someone almost as experienced with the hire of Mike McCarthy. Sometimes having a new voice in the room is what is needed to get a team to the next level. They made some key additions to this offense that should have an immediate impact. On defense, they have a new play caller who has been waiting for an opportunity like this. In terms of strength of schedule, they have the 17th easiest so they will have to fight but I believe that they will continue their winning ways despite having a new coach. I am taking the over for the Steelers.
Bet – Over 8.5 (+110)
*Odds taken from DraftKings
*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis
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